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Nomogram for Predicting Distant Metastasis of Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma: A SEER-Based Population Study

(1) Background: The aim of this study was to identify risk factors for distant metastasis of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) and develop a valid predictive model to guide clinical practice; (2) Methods: We screened 14328 PDAC patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEE...

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Autores principales: Li, Weibo, Wang, Wei, Yao, Lichao, Tang, Zhigang, Zhai, Lulu
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9689204/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36354703
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/curroncol29110643
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author Li, Weibo
Wang, Wei
Yao, Lichao
Tang, Zhigang
Zhai, Lulu
author_facet Li, Weibo
Wang, Wei
Yao, Lichao
Tang, Zhigang
Zhai, Lulu
author_sort Li, Weibo
collection PubMed
description (1) Background: The aim of this study was to identify risk factors for distant metastasis of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) and develop a valid predictive model to guide clinical practice; (2) Methods: We screened 14328 PDAC patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 2010 and 2015. Lasso regression analysis combined with logistic regression analysis were used to determine the independent risk factors for PDAC with distant metastasis. A nomogram predicting the risk of distant metastasis in PDAC was constructed. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and consistency-index (C-index) were used to determine the accuracy and discriminate ability of the nomogram. A calibration curve was used to assess the agreement between the predicted probability of the model and the actual probability. Additionally, decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical influence curve were employed to assess the clinical utility of the nomogram; (3) Results: Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that risk factors for distant metastasis of PDAC included age, primary site, histological grade, and lymph node status. A nomogram was successfully constructed, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.871 for ROC and a C-index of 0.871 (95% CI: 0.860–0.882). The calibration curve showed that the predicted probability of the model was in high agreement with the actual predicted probability. The DCA and clinical influence curve showed that the model had great potential clinical utility; (4) Conclusions: The risk model established in this study has a good predictive performance and a promising potential application, which can provide personalized clinical decisions for future clinical work.
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spelling pubmed-96892042022-11-25 Nomogram for Predicting Distant Metastasis of Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma: A SEER-Based Population Study Li, Weibo Wang, Wei Yao, Lichao Tang, Zhigang Zhai, Lulu Curr Oncol Article (1) Background: The aim of this study was to identify risk factors for distant metastasis of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) and develop a valid predictive model to guide clinical practice; (2) Methods: We screened 14328 PDAC patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 2010 and 2015. Lasso regression analysis combined with logistic regression analysis were used to determine the independent risk factors for PDAC with distant metastasis. A nomogram predicting the risk of distant metastasis in PDAC was constructed. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and consistency-index (C-index) were used to determine the accuracy and discriminate ability of the nomogram. A calibration curve was used to assess the agreement between the predicted probability of the model and the actual probability. Additionally, decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical influence curve were employed to assess the clinical utility of the nomogram; (3) Results: Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that risk factors for distant metastasis of PDAC included age, primary site, histological grade, and lymph node status. A nomogram was successfully constructed, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.871 for ROC and a C-index of 0.871 (95% CI: 0.860–0.882). The calibration curve showed that the predicted probability of the model was in high agreement with the actual predicted probability. The DCA and clinical influence curve showed that the model had great potential clinical utility; (4) Conclusions: The risk model established in this study has a good predictive performance and a promising potential application, which can provide personalized clinical decisions for future clinical work. MDPI 2022-10-28 /pmc/articles/PMC9689204/ /pubmed/36354703 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/curroncol29110643 Text en © 2022 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Li, Weibo
Wang, Wei
Yao, Lichao
Tang, Zhigang
Zhai, Lulu
Nomogram for Predicting Distant Metastasis of Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma: A SEER-Based Population Study
title Nomogram for Predicting Distant Metastasis of Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma: A SEER-Based Population Study
title_full Nomogram for Predicting Distant Metastasis of Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma: A SEER-Based Population Study
title_fullStr Nomogram for Predicting Distant Metastasis of Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma: A SEER-Based Population Study
title_full_unstemmed Nomogram for Predicting Distant Metastasis of Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma: A SEER-Based Population Study
title_short Nomogram for Predicting Distant Metastasis of Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma: A SEER-Based Population Study
title_sort nomogram for predicting distant metastasis of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma: a seer-based population study
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9689204/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36354703
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/curroncol29110643
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