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How Will the Global Food Landscape Accommodate Developing Countries’ Dietary Change under Urbanization?

There has been a growing awareness of the dietary shift from traditional staples to animal-derived foods during the urbanization of developing countries. Less discussed is how the global food landscape will accommodate such changes in diet. Our study aims to use the GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Proje...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Zhang, Yali, Li, Saiya, Jin, Lu, Wu, Feng
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9689613/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36429189
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/foods11223598
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author Zhang, Yali
Li, Saiya
Jin, Lu
Wu, Feng
author_facet Zhang, Yali
Li, Saiya
Jin, Lu
Wu, Feng
author_sort Zhang, Yali
collection PubMed
description There has been a growing awareness of the dietary shift from traditional staples to animal-derived foods during the urbanization of developing countries. Less discussed is how the global food landscape will accommodate such changes in diet. Our study aims to use the GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) model to predict the future food landscape based on the dietary shift in developing countries, represented by China, India, Bangladesh, and Myanmar, under a 2030 urbanization scenario. The results show that the average global outputs of fish, meat, and dairy products increase by 0.26–2.85%, along with an expansion in their trade volume by 2.10–13.95%, by 2030. To ensure that dietary changes can be met in developing countries, Asia and America need to strengthen their positions with respect to global food production share, while Africa is developing to become a non-negligible growing force. Accordingly, globalized food trade is characterized by a centralized export and, conversely, by a decentralized import, clearly indicating an expanding net-import tendency in populous developing countries. These findings highlight the adaptation scheme of global food production and trade patterns under a 2030 urbanization scenario, as urbanization accelerates dietary change in developing countries.
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spelling pubmed-96896132022-11-25 How Will the Global Food Landscape Accommodate Developing Countries’ Dietary Change under Urbanization? Zhang, Yali Li, Saiya Jin, Lu Wu, Feng Foods Article There has been a growing awareness of the dietary shift from traditional staples to animal-derived foods during the urbanization of developing countries. Less discussed is how the global food landscape will accommodate such changes in diet. Our study aims to use the GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) model to predict the future food landscape based on the dietary shift in developing countries, represented by China, India, Bangladesh, and Myanmar, under a 2030 urbanization scenario. The results show that the average global outputs of fish, meat, and dairy products increase by 0.26–2.85%, along with an expansion in their trade volume by 2.10–13.95%, by 2030. To ensure that dietary changes can be met in developing countries, Asia and America need to strengthen their positions with respect to global food production share, while Africa is developing to become a non-negligible growing force. Accordingly, globalized food trade is characterized by a centralized export and, conversely, by a decentralized import, clearly indicating an expanding net-import tendency in populous developing countries. These findings highlight the adaptation scheme of global food production and trade patterns under a 2030 urbanization scenario, as urbanization accelerates dietary change in developing countries. MDPI 2022-11-11 /pmc/articles/PMC9689613/ /pubmed/36429189 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/foods11223598 Text en © 2022 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Zhang, Yali
Li, Saiya
Jin, Lu
Wu, Feng
How Will the Global Food Landscape Accommodate Developing Countries’ Dietary Change under Urbanization?
title How Will the Global Food Landscape Accommodate Developing Countries’ Dietary Change under Urbanization?
title_full How Will the Global Food Landscape Accommodate Developing Countries’ Dietary Change under Urbanization?
title_fullStr How Will the Global Food Landscape Accommodate Developing Countries’ Dietary Change under Urbanization?
title_full_unstemmed How Will the Global Food Landscape Accommodate Developing Countries’ Dietary Change under Urbanization?
title_short How Will the Global Food Landscape Accommodate Developing Countries’ Dietary Change under Urbanization?
title_sort how will the global food landscape accommodate developing countries’ dietary change under urbanization?
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9689613/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36429189
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/foods11223598
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