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How Will the Global Food Landscape Accommodate Developing Countries’ Dietary Change under Urbanization?
There has been a growing awareness of the dietary shift from traditional staples to animal-derived foods during the urbanization of developing countries. Less discussed is how the global food landscape will accommodate such changes in diet. Our study aims to use the GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Proje...
Autores principales: | , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
MDPI
2022
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9689613/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36429189 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/foods11223598 |
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author | Zhang, Yali Li, Saiya Jin, Lu Wu, Feng |
author_facet | Zhang, Yali Li, Saiya Jin, Lu Wu, Feng |
author_sort | Zhang, Yali |
collection | PubMed |
description | There has been a growing awareness of the dietary shift from traditional staples to animal-derived foods during the urbanization of developing countries. Less discussed is how the global food landscape will accommodate such changes in diet. Our study aims to use the GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) model to predict the future food landscape based on the dietary shift in developing countries, represented by China, India, Bangladesh, and Myanmar, under a 2030 urbanization scenario. The results show that the average global outputs of fish, meat, and dairy products increase by 0.26–2.85%, along with an expansion in their trade volume by 2.10–13.95%, by 2030. To ensure that dietary changes can be met in developing countries, Asia and America need to strengthen their positions with respect to global food production share, while Africa is developing to become a non-negligible growing force. Accordingly, globalized food trade is characterized by a centralized export and, conversely, by a decentralized import, clearly indicating an expanding net-import tendency in populous developing countries. These findings highlight the adaptation scheme of global food production and trade patterns under a 2030 urbanization scenario, as urbanization accelerates dietary change in developing countries. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9689613 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | MDPI |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-96896132022-11-25 How Will the Global Food Landscape Accommodate Developing Countries’ Dietary Change under Urbanization? Zhang, Yali Li, Saiya Jin, Lu Wu, Feng Foods Article There has been a growing awareness of the dietary shift from traditional staples to animal-derived foods during the urbanization of developing countries. Less discussed is how the global food landscape will accommodate such changes in diet. Our study aims to use the GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) model to predict the future food landscape based on the dietary shift in developing countries, represented by China, India, Bangladesh, and Myanmar, under a 2030 urbanization scenario. The results show that the average global outputs of fish, meat, and dairy products increase by 0.26–2.85%, along with an expansion in their trade volume by 2.10–13.95%, by 2030. To ensure that dietary changes can be met in developing countries, Asia and America need to strengthen their positions with respect to global food production share, while Africa is developing to become a non-negligible growing force. Accordingly, globalized food trade is characterized by a centralized export and, conversely, by a decentralized import, clearly indicating an expanding net-import tendency in populous developing countries. These findings highlight the adaptation scheme of global food production and trade patterns under a 2030 urbanization scenario, as urbanization accelerates dietary change in developing countries. MDPI 2022-11-11 /pmc/articles/PMC9689613/ /pubmed/36429189 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/foods11223598 Text en © 2022 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). |
spellingShingle | Article Zhang, Yali Li, Saiya Jin, Lu Wu, Feng How Will the Global Food Landscape Accommodate Developing Countries’ Dietary Change under Urbanization? |
title | How Will the Global Food Landscape Accommodate Developing Countries’ Dietary Change under Urbanization? |
title_full | How Will the Global Food Landscape Accommodate Developing Countries’ Dietary Change under Urbanization? |
title_fullStr | How Will the Global Food Landscape Accommodate Developing Countries’ Dietary Change under Urbanization? |
title_full_unstemmed | How Will the Global Food Landscape Accommodate Developing Countries’ Dietary Change under Urbanization? |
title_short | How Will the Global Food Landscape Accommodate Developing Countries’ Dietary Change under Urbanization? |
title_sort | how will the global food landscape accommodate developing countries’ dietary change under urbanization? |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9689613/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36429189 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/foods11223598 |
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