Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Regional Green Development under China’s Environmental Decentralization System—Based on Spatial Durbin Model and Threshold Effect

Artificial intelligence (AI) is the core technology of digital economy, which leads the transition to a sustainable economic growth approach under the Chinese-style environmentally decentralized system. In this paper, we first measured the green total factor productivity (GTFP) of 30 Chinese provinces from 2011 to 2020 using the super-efficiency slacks-based measure (SBM) model, analyzed the mechanism of the effect of AI on GTFP under the environmental decentralization regime, and secondly, empirically investigated the spatial evolution characteristics and the constraining effect of the impact of AI on GTFP using the spatial Durbin model (SDM) and the threshold regression model. The findings reveal: a U shape of the correlation of AI with GTFP; environmental decentralization acts as a positive moderator linking AI and GTFP; the Moran index demonstrates the spatial correlation of GTFP; under the constraint of technological innovation and regional absorptive capacity as threshold variables, the effect of AI over GTFP is U-shaped. This paper provides a useful reference for China to accelerate the formation of a digital-driven green economy development model.