Impact of Emerging Transport Technologies on Freight Economic and Environmental Performance: A System Dynamics View

Road freight transport promotes economic development while impeding the future of green development due to excessive fossil fuel use. Road freight enterprises need to adapt to stricter environmental regulations while maintaining a reasonable level of profit. However, this is not easy in a growing economy such as China’s, whose domestic freight demand is increasing rapidly with economic growth. The development of emerging transport technologies (ETTs) creates great potential for reducing the negative environmental impact of road freight transport. This study considers five candidate ETTs: eco-driving, fleet platooning, vehicle utilization, optimized vehicle design, and renewable energy trucks. A system dynamics analytical framework is established to explore the long-term impact of ETTs on road profit and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions under the uncertainty of macroeconomic development. Road freight enterprises affiliated with the Qingdao port in China are taken as a case study. The economic and environmental impact of their adoption of ETTs is projected from 2020 to 2035. The results show that the economic growth in the port hinterland leads to an increase in road freight volume and profit, but it also yields a greater amount of GHG emissions from road transport. All of the candidate ETTs exhibit a positive effect on reducing GHG emissions from road transport, but they also cause profit losses due to a high application cost, even though they reduce transport operating costs by fuel savings. The results of the Sobol sensitivity analysis show that GHG reductions are sensitive to the adoption of ETTs. Thus, a carbon-based compensation mechanism is introduced. With this mechanism, road freight enterprises should prioritize vehicle utilization, optimized vehicle design, and eco-driving in their adoption of ETTs for more sustainable development. The results provide systems-based insights into ETT deployment decisions for road freight companies.