Cargando…
Development and Validation of a nomogram for forecasting survival of alcohol related hepatocellular carcinoma patients
BACKGROUND: With the increasing incidence and prevalence of alcoholic liver disease, alcohol-related hepatocellular carcinoma has become a serious public health problem worthy of attention in China. However, there is currently no prognostic prediction model for alcohol-related hepatocellular carcino...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
---|---|
Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Frontiers Media S.A.
2022
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9692070/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36439435 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fonc.2022.976445 |
_version_ | 1784837179263942656 |
---|---|
author | Yan, Tao Huang, Chenyang Lei, Jin Guo, Qian Su, Guodong Wu, Tong Jin, Xueyuan Peng, Caiyun Cheng, Jiamin Zhang, Linzhi Liu, Zherui Kin, Terence Ying, Fan Liangpunsakul, Suthat Li, Yinyin Lu, Yinying |
author_facet | Yan, Tao Huang, Chenyang Lei, Jin Guo, Qian Su, Guodong Wu, Tong Jin, Xueyuan Peng, Caiyun Cheng, Jiamin Zhang, Linzhi Liu, Zherui Kin, Terence Ying, Fan Liangpunsakul, Suthat Li, Yinyin Lu, Yinying |
author_sort | Yan, Tao |
collection | PubMed |
description | BACKGROUND: With the increasing incidence and prevalence of alcoholic liver disease, alcohol-related hepatocellular carcinoma has become a serious public health problem worthy of attention in China. However, there is currently no prognostic prediction model for alcohol-related hepatocellular carcinoma. METHODS: The retrospective analysis research of alcohol related hepatocellular carcinoma patients was conducted from January 2010 to December 2014. Independent prognostic factors of alcohol related hepatocellular carcinoma were identified by Lasso regression and multivariate COX proportional model analysis, and the nomogram model was constructed. The reliability and accuracy of the model were assessed using the concordance index(C-Index), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calibration curve. Evaluate the clinical benefit and application value of the model through clinical decision curve analysis (DCA). The prognosis was assessed by the Kaplan-Meier (KM) survival curve. RESULTS: In sum, 383 patients were included in our study. Patients were stochastically assigned to training cohort (n=271) and validation cohort (n=112) according to 7:3 ratio. The predictors included in the nomogram were splenectomy, platelet count (PLT), creatinine (CRE), Prealbumin (PA), mean erythrocyte hemoglobin concentration (MCHC), red blood cell distribution width (RDW) and TNM. Our nomogram demonstrated excellent discriminatory power (C-index) and good calibration at 1-year, 3-year and 5- year overall survival (OS). Compared to TNM and Child-Pugh model, the nomogram had better discriminative ability and higher accuracy. DCA showed high clinical benefit and application value of the model. CONCLUSION: The nomogram model we established can precisely forcasting the prognosis of alcohol related hepatocellular carcinoma patients, which would be helpful for the early warning of alcohol related hepatocellular carcinoma and predict prognosis in patients with alcoholic hepatocellular carcinoma. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9692070 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-96920702022-11-26 Development and Validation of a nomogram for forecasting survival of alcohol related hepatocellular carcinoma patients Yan, Tao Huang, Chenyang Lei, Jin Guo, Qian Su, Guodong Wu, Tong Jin, Xueyuan Peng, Caiyun Cheng, Jiamin Zhang, Linzhi Liu, Zherui Kin, Terence Ying, Fan Liangpunsakul, Suthat Li, Yinyin Lu, Yinying Front Oncol Oncology BACKGROUND: With the increasing incidence and prevalence of alcoholic liver disease, alcohol-related hepatocellular carcinoma has become a serious public health problem worthy of attention in China. However, there is currently no prognostic prediction model for alcohol-related hepatocellular carcinoma. METHODS: The retrospective analysis research of alcohol related hepatocellular carcinoma patients was conducted from January 2010 to December 2014. Independent prognostic factors of alcohol related hepatocellular carcinoma were identified by Lasso regression and multivariate COX proportional model analysis, and the nomogram model was constructed. The reliability and accuracy of the model were assessed using the concordance index(C-Index), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calibration curve. Evaluate the clinical benefit and application value of the model through clinical decision curve analysis (DCA). The prognosis was assessed by the Kaplan-Meier (KM) survival curve. RESULTS: In sum, 383 patients were included in our study. Patients were stochastically assigned to training cohort (n=271) and validation cohort (n=112) according to 7:3 ratio. The predictors included in the nomogram were splenectomy, platelet count (PLT), creatinine (CRE), Prealbumin (PA), mean erythrocyte hemoglobin concentration (MCHC), red blood cell distribution width (RDW) and TNM. Our nomogram demonstrated excellent discriminatory power (C-index) and good calibration at 1-year, 3-year and 5- year overall survival (OS). Compared to TNM and Child-Pugh model, the nomogram had better discriminative ability and higher accuracy. DCA showed high clinical benefit and application value of the model. CONCLUSION: The nomogram model we established can precisely forcasting the prognosis of alcohol related hepatocellular carcinoma patients, which would be helpful for the early warning of alcohol related hepatocellular carcinoma and predict prognosis in patients with alcoholic hepatocellular carcinoma. Frontiers Media S.A. 2022-11-11 /pmc/articles/PMC9692070/ /pubmed/36439435 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fonc.2022.976445 Text en Copyright © 2022 Yan, Huang, Lei, Guo, Su, Wu, Jin, Peng, Cheng, Zhang, Liu, Kin, Ying, Liangpunsakul, Li and Lu https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms. |
spellingShingle | Oncology Yan, Tao Huang, Chenyang Lei, Jin Guo, Qian Su, Guodong Wu, Tong Jin, Xueyuan Peng, Caiyun Cheng, Jiamin Zhang, Linzhi Liu, Zherui Kin, Terence Ying, Fan Liangpunsakul, Suthat Li, Yinyin Lu, Yinying Development and Validation of a nomogram for forecasting survival of alcohol related hepatocellular carcinoma patients |
title | Development and Validation of a nomogram for forecasting survival of alcohol related hepatocellular carcinoma patients |
title_full | Development and Validation of a nomogram for forecasting survival of alcohol related hepatocellular carcinoma patients |
title_fullStr | Development and Validation of a nomogram for forecasting survival of alcohol related hepatocellular carcinoma patients |
title_full_unstemmed | Development and Validation of a nomogram for forecasting survival of alcohol related hepatocellular carcinoma patients |
title_short | Development and Validation of a nomogram for forecasting survival of alcohol related hepatocellular carcinoma patients |
title_sort | development and validation of a nomogram for forecasting survival of alcohol related hepatocellular carcinoma patients |
topic | Oncology |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9692070/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36439435 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fonc.2022.976445 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT yantao developmentandvalidationofanomogramforforecastingsurvivalofalcoholrelatedhepatocellularcarcinomapatients AT huangchenyang developmentandvalidationofanomogramforforecastingsurvivalofalcoholrelatedhepatocellularcarcinomapatients AT leijin developmentandvalidationofanomogramforforecastingsurvivalofalcoholrelatedhepatocellularcarcinomapatients AT guoqian developmentandvalidationofanomogramforforecastingsurvivalofalcoholrelatedhepatocellularcarcinomapatients AT suguodong developmentandvalidationofanomogramforforecastingsurvivalofalcoholrelatedhepatocellularcarcinomapatients AT wutong developmentandvalidationofanomogramforforecastingsurvivalofalcoholrelatedhepatocellularcarcinomapatients AT jinxueyuan developmentandvalidationofanomogramforforecastingsurvivalofalcoholrelatedhepatocellularcarcinomapatients AT pengcaiyun developmentandvalidationofanomogramforforecastingsurvivalofalcoholrelatedhepatocellularcarcinomapatients AT chengjiamin developmentandvalidationofanomogramforforecastingsurvivalofalcoholrelatedhepatocellularcarcinomapatients AT zhanglinzhi developmentandvalidationofanomogramforforecastingsurvivalofalcoholrelatedhepatocellularcarcinomapatients AT liuzherui developmentandvalidationofanomogramforforecastingsurvivalofalcoholrelatedhepatocellularcarcinomapatients AT kinterence developmentandvalidationofanomogramforforecastingsurvivalofalcoholrelatedhepatocellularcarcinomapatients AT yingfan developmentandvalidationofanomogramforforecastingsurvivalofalcoholrelatedhepatocellularcarcinomapatients AT liangpunsakulsuthat developmentandvalidationofanomogramforforecastingsurvivalofalcoholrelatedhepatocellularcarcinomapatients AT liyinyin developmentandvalidationofanomogramforforecastingsurvivalofalcoholrelatedhepatocellularcarcinomapatients AT luyinying developmentandvalidationofanomogramforforecastingsurvivalofalcoholrelatedhepatocellularcarcinomapatients |