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Contribution of Testing Strategies and Contact Tracing towards COVID-19 Outbreaks Control: A Mathematical Modeling Study
This modeling study considers different screening strategies, contact tracing, and the severity of novel epidemic outbreaks for various population sizes, providing insight into multinational containment effectiveness of emerging infectious diseases, prior to vaccines development. During the period o...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
MDPI
2022
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9693367/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36422926 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/tropicalmed7110376 |
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author | Kuo, Shu-Chen Fan, Byron Zhu, Hongye Wu, Meng-Hsuan Lee, Fang-Jing Cheng, Yu-Chieh Wu, Hsiao-Yu Hsu, Ya-Ting Hsiung, Chao A. Wu, Shiow-Ing Chen, Wei J. Chiou, Hung-Yi Sytwu, Huey-Kang Tsou, Hsiao-Hui |
author_facet | Kuo, Shu-Chen Fan, Byron Zhu, Hongye Wu, Meng-Hsuan Lee, Fang-Jing Cheng, Yu-Chieh Wu, Hsiao-Yu Hsu, Ya-Ting Hsiung, Chao A. Wu, Shiow-Ing Chen, Wei J. Chiou, Hung-Yi Sytwu, Huey-Kang Tsou, Hsiao-Hui |
author_sort | Kuo, Shu-Chen |
collection | PubMed |
description | This modeling study considers different screening strategies, contact tracing, and the severity of novel epidemic outbreaks for various population sizes, providing insight into multinational containment effectiveness of emerging infectious diseases, prior to vaccines development. During the period of the ancestral SARS-Cov-2 virus, contact tracing alone is insufficient to achieve outbreak control. Although universal testing is proposed in multiple nations, its effectiveness accompanied by other measures is rarely examined. Our research investigates the necessity of universal testing when contact tracing and symptomatic screening measures are implemented. We used a stochastic transmission model to simulate COVID-19 transmission, evaluating containment strategies via contact tracing, one-time high risk symptomatic testing, and universal testing. Despite universal testing having the potential to identify subclinical cases, which is crucial for non-pharmaceutical interventions, our model suggests that universal testing only reduces the total number of cases by 0.0009% for countries with low COVID-19 prevalence and 0.025% for countries with high COVID-19 prevalence when rigorous contact tracing and symptomatic screening are also implemented. These findings highlight the effectiveness of testing strategies and contact tracing in reducing COVID-19 cases by identifying subclinical cases. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9693367 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | MDPI |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-96933672022-11-26 Contribution of Testing Strategies and Contact Tracing towards COVID-19 Outbreaks Control: A Mathematical Modeling Study Kuo, Shu-Chen Fan, Byron Zhu, Hongye Wu, Meng-Hsuan Lee, Fang-Jing Cheng, Yu-Chieh Wu, Hsiao-Yu Hsu, Ya-Ting Hsiung, Chao A. Wu, Shiow-Ing Chen, Wei J. Chiou, Hung-Yi Sytwu, Huey-Kang Tsou, Hsiao-Hui Trop Med Infect Dis Article This modeling study considers different screening strategies, contact tracing, and the severity of novel epidemic outbreaks for various population sizes, providing insight into multinational containment effectiveness of emerging infectious diseases, prior to vaccines development. During the period of the ancestral SARS-Cov-2 virus, contact tracing alone is insufficient to achieve outbreak control. Although universal testing is proposed in multiple nations, its effectiveness accompanied by other measures is rarely examined. Our research investigates the necessity of universal testing when contact tracing and symptomatic screening measures are implemented. We used a stochastic transmission model to simulate COVID-19 transmission, evaluating containment strategies via contact tracing, one-time high risk symptomatic testing, and universal testing. Despite universal testing having the potential to identify subclinical cases, which is crucial for non-pharmaceutical interventions, our model suggests that universal testing only reduces the total number of cases by 0.0009% for countries with low COVID-19 prevalence and 0.025% for countries with high COVID-19 prevalence when rigorous contact tracing and symptomatic screening are also implemented. These findings highlight the effectiveness of testing strategies and contact tracing in reducing COVID-19 cases by identifying subclinical cases. MDPI 2022-11-14 /pmc/articles/PMC9693367/ /pubmed/36422926 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/tropicalmed7110376 Text en © 2022 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). |
spellingShingle | Article Kuo, Shu-Chen Fan, Byron Zhu, Hongye Wu, Meng-Hsuan Lee, Fang-Jing Cheng, Yu-Chieh Wu, Hsiao-Yu Hsu, Ya-Ting Hsiung, Chao A. Wu, Shiow-Ing Chen, Wei J. Chiou, Hung-Yi Sytwu, Huey-Kang Tsou, Hsiao-Hui Contribution of Testing Strategies and Contact Tracing towards COVID-19 Outbreaks Control: A Mathematical Modeling Study |
title | Contribution of Testing Strategies and Contact Tracing towards COVID-19 Outbreaks Control: A Mathematical Modeling Study |
title_full | Contribution of Testing Strategies and Contact Tracing towards COVID-19 Outbreaks Control: A Mathematical Modeling Study |
title_fullStr | Contribution of Testing Strategies and Contact Tracing towards COVID-19 Outbreaks Control: A Mathematical Modeling Study |
title_full_unstemmed | Contribution of Testing Strategies and Contact Tracing towards COVID-19 Outbreaks Control: A Mathematical Modeling Study |
title_short | Contribution of Testing Strategies and Contact Tracing towards COVID-19 Outbreaks Control: A Mathematical Modeling Study |
title_sort | contribution of testing strategies and contact tracing towards covid-19 outbreaks control: a mathematical modeling study |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9693367/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36422926 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/tropicalmed7110376 |
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