Cargando…

Contribution of Testing Strategies and Contact Tracing towards COVID-19 Outbreaks Control: A Mathematical Modeling Study

This modeling study considers different screening strategies, contact tracing, and the severity of novel epidemic outbreaks for various population sizes, providing insight into multinational containment effectiveness of emerging infectious diseases, prior to vaccines development. During the period o...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Kuo, Shu-Chen, Fan, Byron, Zhu, Hongye, Wu, Meng-Hsuan, Lee, Fang-Jing, Cheng, Yu-Chieh, Wu, Hsiao-Yu, Hsu, Ya-Ting, Hsiung, Chao A., Wu, Shiow-Ing, Chen, Wei J., Chiou, Hung-Yi, Sytwu, Huey-Kang, Tsou, Hsiao-Hui
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9693367/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36422926
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/tropicalmed7110376
_version_ 1784837523402391552
author Kuo, Shu-Chen
Fan, Byron
Zhu, Hongye
Wu, Meng-Hsuan
Lee, Fang-Jing
Cheng, Yu-Chieh
Wu, Hsiao-Yu
Hsu, Ya-Ting
Hsiung, Chao A.
Wu, Shiow-Ing
Chen, Wei J.
Chiou, Hung-Yi
Sytwu, Huey-Kang
Tsou, Hsiao-Hui
author_facet Kuo, Shu-Chen
Fan, Byron
Zhu, Hongye
Wu, Meng-Hsuan
Lee, Fang-Jing
Cheng, Yu-Chieh
Wu, Hsiao-Yu
Hsu, Ya-Ting
Hsiung, Chao A.
Wu, Shiow-Ing
Chen, Wei J.
Chiou, Hung-Yi
Sytwu, Huey-Kang
Tsou, Hsiao-Hui
author_sort Kuo, Shu-Chen
collection PubMed
description This modeling study considers different screening strategies, contact tracing, and the severity of novel epidemic outbreaks for various population sizes, providing insight into multinational containment effectiveness of emerging infectious diseases, prior to vaccines development. During the period of the ancestral SARS-Cov-2 virus, contact tracing alone is insufficient to achieve outbreak control. Although universal testing is proposed in multiple nations, its effectiveness accompanied by other measures is rarely examined. Our research investigates the necessity of universal testing when contact tracing and symptomatic screening measures are implemented. We used a stochastic transmission model to simulate COVID-19 transmission, evaluating containment strategies via contact tracing, one-time high risk symptomatic testing, and universal testing. Despite universal testing having the potential to identify subclinical cases, which is crucial for non-pharmaceutical interventions, our model suggests that universal testing only reduces the total number of cases by 0.0009% for countries with low COVID-19 prevalence and 0.025% for countries with high COVID-19 prevalence when rigorous contact tracing and symptomatic screening are also implemented. These findings highlight the effectiveness of testing strategies and contact tracing in reducing COVID-19 cases by identifying subclinical cases.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-9693367
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2022
publisher MDPI
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-96933672022-11-26 Contribution of Testing Strategies and Contact Tracing towards COVID-19 Outbreaks Control: A Mathematical Modeling Study Kuo, Shu-Chen Fan, Byron Zhu, Hongye Wu, Meng-Hsuan Lee, Fang-Jing Cheng, Yu-Chieh Wu, Hsiao-Yu Hsu, Ya-Ting Hsiung, Chao A. Wu, Shiow-Ing Chen, Wei J. Chiou, Hung-Yi Sytwu, Huey-Kang Tsou, Hsiao-Hui Trop Med Infect Dis Article This modeling study considers different screening strategies, contact tracing, and the severity of novel epidemic outbreaks for various population sizes, providing insight into multinational containment effectiveness of emerging infectious diseases, prior to vaccines development. During the period of the ancestral SARS-Cov-2 virus, contact tracing alone is insufficient to achieve outbreak control. Although universal testing is proposed in multiple nations, its effectiveness accompanied by other measures is rarely examined. Our research investigates the necessity of universal testing when contact tracing and symptomatic screening measures are implemented. We used a stochastic transmission model to simulate COVID-19 transmission, evaluating containment strategies via contact tracing, one-time high risk symptomatic testing, and universal testing. Despite universal testing having the potential to identify subclinical cases, which is crucial for non-pharmaceutical interventions, our model suggests that universal testing only reduces the total number of cases by 0.0009% for countries with low COVID-19 prevalence and 0.025% for countries with high COVID-19 prevalence when rigorous contact tracing and symptomatic screening are also implemented. These findings highlight the effectiveness of testing strategies and contact tracing in reducing COVID-19 cases by identifying subclinical cases. MDPI 2022-11-14 /pmc/articles/PMC9693367/ /pubmed/36422926 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/tropicalmed7110376 Text en © 2022 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Kuo, Shu-Chen
Fan, Byron
Zhu, Hongye
Wu, Meng-Hsuan
Lee, Fang-Jing
Cheng, Yu-Chieh
Wu, Hsiao-Yu
Hsu, Ya-Ting
Hsiung, Chao A.
Wu, Shiow-Ing
Chen, Wei J.
Chiou, Hung-Yi
Sytwu, Huey-Kang
Tsou, Hsiao-Hui
Contribution of Testing Strategies and Contact Tracing towards COVID-19 Outbreaks Control: A Mathematical Modeling Study
title Contribution of Testing Strategies and Contact Tracing towards COVID-19 Outbreaks Control: A Mathematical Modeling Study
title_full Contribution of Testing Strategies and Contact Tracing towards COVID-19 Outbreaks Control: A Mathematical Modeling Study
title_fullStr Contribution of Testing Strategies and Contact Tracing towards COVID-19 Outbreaks Control: A Mathematical Modeling Study
title_full_unstemmed Contribution of Testing Strategies and Contact Tracing towards COVID-19 Outbreaks Control: A Mathematical Modeling Study
title_short Contribution of Testing Strategies and Contact Tracing towards COVID-19 Outbreaks Control: A Mathematical Modeling Study
title_sort contribution of testing strategies and contact tracing towards covid-19 outbreaks control: a mathematical modeling study
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9693367/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36422926
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/tropicalmed7110376
work_keys_str_mv AT kuoshuchen contributionoftestingstrategiesandcontacttracingtowardscovid19outbreakscontrolamathematicalmodelingstudy
AT fanbyron contributionoftestingstrategiesandcontacttracingtowardscovid19outbreakscontrolamathematicalmodelingstudy
AT zhuhongye contributionoftestingstrategiesandcontacttracingtowardscovid19outbreakscontrolamathematicalmodelingstudy
AT wumenghsuan contributionoftestingstrategiesandcontacttracingtowardscovid19outbreakscontrolamathematicalmodelingstudy
AT leefangjing contributionoftestingstrategiesandcontacttracingtowardscovid19outbreakscontrolamathematicalmodelingstudy
AT chengyuchieh contributionoftestingstrategiesandcontacttracingtowardscovid19outbreakscontrolamathematicalmodelingstudy
AT wuhsiaoyu contributionoftestingstrategiesandcontacttracingtowardscovid19outbreakscontrolamathematicalmodelingstudy
AT hsuyating contributionoftestingstrategiesandcontacttracingtowardscovid19outbreakscontrolamathematicalmodelingstudy
AT hsiungchaoa contributionoftestingstrategiesandcontacttracingtowardscovid19outbreakscontrolamathematicalmodelingstudy
AT wushiowing contributionoftestingstrategiesandcontacttracingtowardscovid19outbreakscontrolamathematicalmodelingstudy
AT chenweij contributionoftestingstrategiesandcontacttracingtowardscovid19outbreakscontrolamathematicalmodelingstudy
AT chiouhungyi contributionoftestingstrategiesandcontacttracingtowardscovid19outbreakscontrolamathematicalmodelingstudy
AT sytwuhueykang contributionoftestingstrategiesandcontacttracingtowardscovid19outbreakscontrolamathematicalmodelingstudy
AT tsouhsiaohui contributionoftestingstrategiesandcontacttracingtowardscovid19outbreakscontrolamathematicalmodelingstudy