Analysis of apoB Concentrations Across Early Adulthood and Predictors for Rates of Change Using CARDIA Study Data

The cumulative exposure to apolipoprotein B (apoB)-containing lipoproteins in the blood during early adult life is a central determinant of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk. To date, the patterns and rates of change in apoB through early adult life have not been described. Here, we used NMR to measure apoB concentrations in up to 3055 Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) Study participants who attended the years 2 (Y2), 7 (Y7), 15 (Y15), 20 (Y20), and 30 (Y30) exams. We examined individual-level spaghetti plots of apoB change, and we calculated average annualized rate of apoB concentration change during follow-up. We used multivariable linear regression models to assess the associations between CARDIA participant characteristics and annualized rates of apoB change. Male sex, higher measures of adiposity, lower HDL-C, lower Healthy Eating Index, and higher blood pressures were observed more commonly in individuals with higher apoB level at Y2 and Y20. Inter- and intra-individual variation in apoB concentration over time was substantial—while the mean (SD) rate of change was 0.52 (1.0) mg/dl/year, the range of annualized rates of change was −6.26 to +9.21 mg/dl/year. At baseline, lower first apoB measurement, female sex, White race, lower BMI, and current tobacco use were associated with apoB increase. We conclude that the significant variance in apoB level over time and the modest association between baseline measures and rates of apoB change suggest that the ability to predict an individual’s future apoB serum concentrations, and thus their cumulative apoB exposure, after a one-time assessment in young adulthood is low.