Estimation of mRNA COVID-19 Vaccination Effectiveness in Tokyo for Omicron Variants BA.2 and BA.5: Effect of Social Behavior

The variability of the COVID-19 vaccination effectiveness (VE) should be assessed with a resolution of a few days, assuming that the VE is influenced by public behavior and social activity. Here, the VE for the Omicron variants (BA.2 and BA.5) is numerically derived for Japan’s population for the second and third vaccination doses. We then evaluated the daily VE variation due to social behavior from the daily data reports in Tokyo. The VE for the Omicron variants (BA.1, BA.2, and BA.5) are derived from the data of Japan and Tokyo with a computational approach. In addition, the effect of the different parameters regarding human behavior on VE was assessed using daily data in Tokyo. The individual VE for the Omicron BA.2 in Japan was 61% (95% CI: 57–65%) for the second dose of the vaccination from our computation, whereas that for the third dose was 86% (95% CI: 84–88%). The individual BA.5 VE for the second and third doses are 37% (95% CI: 33–40%) and 63% (95% CI: 61–65%). The reduction in the daily VE from the estimated value was closely correlated to the number of tweets related to social gatherings on Twitter. The number of tweets considered here would be one of the new candidates for VE evaluation and surveillance affecting the viral transmission.