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Spatio-Temporal Pattern and Meteo-Climatic Determinants of Visceral Leishmaniasis in Italy
Historically, visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in Italy was constrained to Mediterranean areas. However, in the last 20 years, sand fly vectors and human cases of VL have been detected in northern Italy, traditionally classified as a cold area unsuitable for sand fly survival. We aim to study the spatio-...
Autores principales: | , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
MDPI
2022
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9694427/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36355879 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/tropicalmed7110337 |
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author | Moirano, Giovenale Ellena, Marta Mercogliano, Paola Richiardi, Lorenzo Maule, Milena |
author_facet | Moirano, Giovenale Ellena, Marta Mercogliano, Paola Richiardi, Lorenzo Maule, Milena |
author_sort | Moirano, Giovenale |
collection | PubMed |
description | Historically, visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in Italy was constrained to Mediterranean areas. However, in the last 20 years, sand fly vectors and human cases of VL have been detected in northern Italy, traditionally classified as a cold area unsuitable for sand fly survival. We aim to study the spatio-temporal pattern and climatic determinants of VL incidence in Italy. National Hospital Discharge Register records were used to identify incident cases of VL between 2009 and 2016. Incident rates were computed for each year (N = 8) and for each province (N = 110). Data on mean temperature and cumulative precipitation were obtained from the ERA5-Land re-analysis. Age- and sex-standardized incidence rates were modeled with Bayesian spatial and spatio-temporal conditional autoregressive Poisson models in relation to the meteo-climatic parameters. Statistical inference was based on Monte Carlo–Markov chains. We identified 1123 VL cases (incidence rate: 2.4 cases/1,000,000 person-years). The highest incidence rates were observed in southern Italy, even though some areas of northern Italy experienced high incidence rates. Overall, in the spatial analysis, VL incidence rates were positively associated with average air temperatures ([Formula: see text] for 1 °C increase in average mean average temperature: 0.14; 95% credible intervals (CrI): 0.01, 0.27) and inversely associated with average precipitation ([Formula: see text] for 20 mm increase in average summer cumulative precipitation: −0.28, 95% CrI: −0.42, −0.13). In the spatio-temporal analysis, no association between VL cases and season-year specific temperature and precipitation anomalies was detected. Our findings indicate that VL is endemic in the whole Italian peninsula and that climatic factors, such as air temperature and precipitation, might play a relevant role in shaping the geographical distribution of VL cases. These results support that climate change might affect leishmaniasis distribution in the future. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9694427 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | MDPI |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-96944272022-11-26 Spatio-Temporal Pattern and Meteo-Climatic Determinants of Visceral Leishmaniasis in Italy Moirano, Giovenale Ellena, Marta Mercogliano, Paola Richiardi, Lorenzo Maule, Milena Trop Med Infect Dis Article Historically, visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in Italy was constrained to Mediterranean areas. However, in the last 20 years, sand fly vectors and human cases of VL have been detected in northern Italy, traditionally classified as a cold area unsuitable for sand fly survival. We aim to study the spatio-temporal pattern and climatic determinants of VL incidence in Italy. National Hospital Discharge Register records were used to identify incident cases of VL between 2009 and 2016. Incident rates were computed for each year (N = 8) and for each province (N = 110). Data on mean temperature and cumulative precipitation were obtained from the ERA5-Land re-analysis. Age- and sex-standardized incidence rates were modeled with Bayesian spatial and spatio-temporal conditional autoregressive Poisson models in relation to the meteo-climatic parameters. Statistical inference was based on Monte Carlo–Markov chains. We identified 1123 VL cases (incidence rate: 2.4 cases/1,000,000 person-years). The highest incidence rates were observed in southern Italy, even though some areas of northern Italy experienced high incidence rates. Overall, in the spatial analysis, VL incidence rates were positively associated with average air temperatures ([Formula: see text] for 1 °C increase in average mean average temperature: 0.14; 95% credible intervals (CrI): 0.01, 0.27) and inversely associated with average precipitation ([Formula: see text] for 20 mm increase in average summer cumulative precipitation: −0.28, 95% CrI: −0.42, −0.13). In the spatio-temporal analysis, no association between VL cases and season-year specific temperature and precipitation anomalies was detected. Our findings indicate that VL is endemic in the whole Italian peninsula and that climatic factors, such as air temperature and precipitation, might play a relevant role in shaping the geographical distribution of VL cases. These results support that climate change might affect leishmaniasis distribution in the future. MDPI 2022-10-29 /pmc/articles/PMC9694427/ /pubmed/36355879 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/tropicalmed7110337 Text en © 2022 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). |
spellingShingle | Article Moirano, Giovenale Ellena, Marta Mercogliano, Paola Richiardi, Lorenzo Maule, Milena Spatio-Temporal Pattern and Meteo-Climatic Determinants of Visceral Leishmaniasis in Italy |
title | Spatio-Temporal Pattern and Meteo-Climatic Determinants of Visceral Leishmaniasis in Italy |
title_full | Spatio-Temporal Pattern and Meteo-Climatic Determinants of Visceral Leishmaniasis in Italy |
title_fullStr | Spatio-Temporal Pattern and Meteo-Climatic Determinants of Visceral Leishmaniasis in Italy |
title_full_unstemmed | Spatio-Temporal Pattern and Meteo-Climatic Determinants of Visceral Leishmaniasis in Italy |
title_short | Spatio-Temporal Pattern and Meteo-Climatic Determinants of Visceral Leishmaniasis in Italy |
title_sort | spatio-temporal pattern and meteo-climatic determinants of visceral leishmaniasis in italy |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9694427/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36355879 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/tropicalmed7110337 |
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