Prediction of the Current and Future Distributions of the Hessian Fly, Mayetiola destructor (Say), under Climatic Change in China

SIMPLE SUMMARY: The Hessian fly (Mayetiola destructor (Say)) is an important wheat pest worldwide and an invasive species in China. In this study, we used the MaxEnt model to predict the potentially suitable habitat of the Hessian fly in China under current and future climatic change conditions. The results showed that under the current climatic conditions, the potentially suitable habitats of the Hessian fly were mainly concentrated in central and eastern China, with an area of 96.27 × 10(4) km(2). With increasing global temperatures, most potential geographic distribution areas would expand in the future. ABSTRACT: The Hessian fly, Mayetiola destructor (Say) (Diptera: Cecidomyiidae), is a destructive wheat pest worldwide and an important alien species in China. Based on 258 distribution records and nine environmental factors of the Hessian fly, we predicted the potential distribution area in China under three current and future (2050s and 2070s) climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) via the optimized MaxEnt model. Under the current climate conditions, the suitable distribution areas of the Hessian fly in China were 25–48° N, 81–123° E, and the total highly suitable distribution area is approximately 9.63 × 10(5) km(2), accounting for 9.99% of the total national area. The highly suitable areas are mainly located in northern Xinjiang and central and eastern China. With the rising global temperatures, except for the high-suitable areas under the RCP8.5 scenario, most potential geographic distribution areas would expand in the future. The minimum temperature in February (tmin-2), precipitation in March (prec-3), maximum temperature in November (tmax-11), and precipitation seasonality (bio-15) are important factors that affect the potential geographic distribution of the Hessian fly. This study provides an important reference and empirical basis for management of the Hessian fly in the future.