Spatial Methods for Inferring Extremes in Dengue Outbreak Risk in Singapore

Dengue is a major vector-borne disease worldwide. Here, we examined the spatial distribution of extreme weekly dengue outbreak risk in Singapore from 2007 to 2020. We divided Singapore into equal-sized hexagons with a circumradius of 165 m and obtained the weekly number of dengue cases and the surfa...

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Autores principales: Soh, Stacy, Ho, Soon Hoe, Seah, Annabel, Ong, Janet, Richards, Daniel R., Gaw, Leon Yan-Feng, Dickens, Borame Sue, Tan, Ken Wei, Koo, Joel Ruihan, Cook, Alex R., Lim, Jue Tao
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9695662/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36366548
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/v14112450
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author Soh, Stacy
Ho, Soon Hoe
Seah, Annabel
Ong, Janet
Richards, Daniel R.
Gaw, Leon Yan-Feng
Dickens, Borame Sue
Tan, Ken Wei
Koo, Joel Ruihan
Cook, Alex R.
Lim, Jue Tao
author_facet Soh, Stacy
Ho, Soon Hoe
Seah, Annabel
Ong, Janet
Richards, Daniel R.
Gaw, Leon Yan-Feng
Dickens, Borame Sue
Tan, Ken Wei
Koo, Joel Ruihan
Cook, Alex R.
Lim, Jue Tao
author_sort Soh, Stacy
collection PubMed
description Dengue is a major vector-borne disease worldwide. Here, we examined the spatial distribution of extreme weekly dengue outbreak risk in Singapore from 2007 to 2020. We divided Singapore into equal-sized hexagons with a circumradius of 165 m and obtained the weekly number of dengue cases and the surface characteristics of each hexagon. We accounted for spatial heterogeneity using max-stable processes. The 5-, 10-, 20-, and 30-year return levels, or the weekly dengue case counts expected to be exceeded once every 5, 10, 20, and 30 years, respectively, were determined for each hexagon conditional on their surface characteristics remaining constant over time. The return levels were higher in the country’s east, with the maximum weekly dengue cases per hexagon expected to exceed 51 at least once in 30 years in many areas. The surface characteristics with the largest impact on outbreak risk were the age of public apartments and the percentage of impervious surfaces, where a 3-year and 10% increase in each characteristic resulted in a 3.8% and 3.3% increase in risk, respectively. Vector control efforts should be prioritized in older residential estates and places with large contiguous masses of built-up environments. Our findings indicate the likely scale of outbreaks in the long term.
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spelling pubmed-96956622022-11-26 Spatial Methods for Inferring Extremes in Dengue Outbreak Risk in Singapore Soh, Stacy Ho, Soon Hoe Seah, Annabel Ong, Janet Richards, Daniel R. Gaw, Leon Yan-Feng Dickens, Borame Sue Tan, Ken Wei Koo, Joel Ruihan Cook, Alex R. Lim, Jue Tao Viruses Article Dengue is a major vector-borne disease worldwide. Here, we examined the spatial distribution of extreme weekly dengue outbreak risk in Singapore from 2007 to 2020. We divided Singapore into equal-sized hexagons with a circumradius of 165 m and obtained the weekly number of dengue cases and the surface characteristics of each hexagon. We accounted for spatial heterogeneity using max-stable processes. The 5-, 10-, 20-, and 30-year return levels, or the weekly dengue case counts expected to be exceeded once every 5, 10, 20, and 30 years, respectively, were determined for each hexagon conditional on their surface characteristics remaining constant over time. The return levels were higher in the country’s east, with the maximum weekly dengue cases per hexagon expected to exceed 51 at least once in 30 years in many areas. The surface characteristics with the largest impact on outbreak risk were the age of public apartments and the percentage of impervious surfaces, where a 3-year and 10% increase in each characteristic resulted in a 3.8% and 3.3% increase in risk, respectively. Vector control efforts should be prioritized in older residential estates and places with large contiguous masses of built-up environments. Our findings indicate the likely scale of outbreaks in the long term. MDPI 2022-11-04 /pmc/articles/PMC9695662/ /pubmed/36366548 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/v14112450 Text en © 2022 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Soh, Stacy
Ho, Soon Hoe
Seah, Annabel
Ong, Janet
Richards, Daniel R.
Gaw, Leon Yan-Feng
Dickens, Borame Sue
Tan, Ken Wei
Koo, Joel Ruihan
Cook, Alex R.
Lim, Jue Tao
Spatial Methods for Inferring Extremes in Dengue Outbreak Risk in Singapore
title Spatial Methods for Inferring Extremes in Dengue Outbreak Risk in Singapore
title_full Spatial Methods for Inferring Extremes in Dengue Outbreak Risk in Singapore
title_fullStr Spatial Methods for Inferring Extremes in Dengue Outbreak Risk in Singapore
title_full_unstemmed Spatial Methods for Inferring Extremes in Dengue Outbreak Risk in Singapore
title_short Spatial Methods for Inferring Extremes in Dengue Outbreak Risk in Singapore
title_sort spatial methods for inferring extremes in dengue outbreak risk in singapore
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9695662/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36366548
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/v14112450
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