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The Impact of Urbanization and Human Mobility on Seasonal Influenza in Northern China

The intensity of influenza epidemics varies significantly from year to year among regions with similar climatic conditions and populations. However, the underlying mechanisms of the temporal and spatial variations remain unclear. We investigated the impact of urbanization and public transportation s...

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Autores principales: Yang, Jiao, Guo, Xudong, Zhang, Ting, Wang, Qing, Zhang, Xingxing, Yang, Jin, Lai, Shengjie, Feng, Luzhao, Yang, Weizhong
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9697484/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36423173
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/v14112563
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author Yang, Jiao
Guo, Xudong
Zhang, Ting
Wang, Qing
Zhang, Xingxing
Yang, Jin
Lai, Shengjie
Feng, Luzhao
Yang, Weizhong
author_facet Yang, Jiao
Guo, Xudong
Zhang, Ting
Wang, Qing
Zhang, Xingxing
Yang, Jin
Lai, Shengjie
Feng, Luzhao
Yang, Weizhong
author_sort Yang, Jiao
collection PubMed
description The intensity of influenza epidemics varies significantly from year to year among regions with similar climatic conditions and populations. However, the underlying mechanisms of the temporal and spatial variations remain unclear. We investigated the impact of urbanization and public transportation size on influenza activity. We used 6-year weekly provincial-level surveillance data of influenza-like disease incidence (ILI) and viral activity in northern China. We derived the transmission potential of influenza for each epidemic season using the susceptible–exposed–infectious–removed–susceptible (SEIRS) model and estimated the transmissibility in the peak period via the instantaneous reproduction number (R(t)). Public transport was found to explain approximately 28% of the variance in the seasonal transmission potential. Urbanization and public transportation size explained approximately 10% and 21% of the variance in maximum R(t) in the peak period, respectively. For the mean R(t) during the peak period, urbanization and public transportation accounted for 9% and 16% of the variance in R(t), respectively. Our results indicated that the differences in the intensity of influenza epidemics among the northern provinces of China were partially driven by urbanization and public transport size. These findings are beneficial for predicting influenza intensity and developing preparedness strategies for the early stages of epidemics.
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spelling pubmed-96974842022-11-26 The Impact of Urbanization and Human Mobility on Seasonal Influenza in Northern China Yang, Jiao Guo, Xudong Zhang, Ting Wang, Qing Zhang, Xingxing Yang, Jin Lai, Shengjie Feng, Luzhao Yang, Weizhong Viruses Article The intensity of influenza epidemics varies significantly from year to year among regions with similar climatic conditions and populations. However, the underlying mechanisms of the temporal and spatial variations remain unclear. We investigated the impact of urbanization and public transportation size on influenza activity. We used 6-year weekly provincial-level surveillance data of influenza-like disease incidence (ILI) and viral activity in northern China. We derived the transmission potential of influenza for each epidemic season using the susceptible–exposed–infectious–removed–susceptible (SEIRS) model and estimated the transmissibility in the peak period via the instantaneous reproduction number (R(t)). Public transport was found to explain approximately 28% of the variance in the seasonal transmission potential. Urbanization and public transportation size explained approximately 10% and 21% of the variance in maximum R(t) in the peak period, respectively. For the mean R(t) during the peak period, urbanization and public transportation accounted for 9% and 16% of the variance in R(t), respectively. Our results indicated that the differences in the intensity of influenza epidemics among the northern provinces of China were partially driven by urbanization and public transport size. These findings are beneficial for predicting influenza intensity and developing preparedness strategies for the early stages of epidemics. MDPI 2022-11-19 /pmc/articles/PMC9697484/ /pubmed/36423173 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/v14112563 Text en © 2022 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Yang, Jiao
Guo, Xudong
Zhang, Ting
Wang, Qing
Zhang, Xingxing
Yang, Jin
Lai, Shengjie
Feng, Luzhao
Yang, Weizhong
The Impact of Urbanization and Human Mobility on Seasonal Influenza in Northern China
title The Impact of Urbanization and Human Mobility on Seasonal Influenza in Northern China
title_full The Impact of Urbanization and Human Mobility on Seasonal Influenza in Northern China
title_fullStr The Impact of Urbanization and Human Mobility on Seasonal Influenza in Northern China
title_full_unstemmed The Impact of Urbanization and Human Mobility on Seasonal Influenza in Northern China
title_short The Impact of Urbanization and Human Mobility on Seasonal Influenza in Northern China
title_sort impact of urbanization and human mobility on seasonal influenza in northern china
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9697484/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36423173
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/v14112563
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