Prognostic model for overall survival that includes the combination of platelet count and neutrophil–lymphocyte ratio within the first six weeks of sunitinib treatment for metastatic renal cell carcinoma

BACKGROUND: The association between the combination of platelet count and neutrophil–lymphocyte ratio (COP-NLR) at the time of adverse events during sunitinib treatment and prognosis is unclear, and prognostic models combining the prognostic factors of sunitinib have not been well studied. Thus, we developed a prognostic model that includes the COP-NLR to predict the prognosis of patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC) treated with sunitinib. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study of 102 patients treated with sunitinib for mRCC between 2008 and 2020 in three hospitals associated with Showa University, Japan. The primary outcome was overall survival (OS). The collected data included baseline patient characteristics, adverse events, laboratory values, and COP-NLR scores within the first 6 weeks of sunitinib treatment. Prognostic factors of OS were analyzed using the Cox proportional hazards model. The integer score was derived from the beta-coefficient (β) of these factors and was divided into three groups. The survival curves were visualized using the Kaplan–Meier method and estimated using a log-rank test. RESULTS: The median OS was 32.3 months. Multivariable analysis showed that the number of metastatic sites, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center risk group, number of metastases, non-hypertension, modified Glasgow Prognostic Score, and 6-week COP-NLR were significantly associated with OS. A higher 6-week COP-NLR was significantly associated with a shorter OS (p < 0.001). The β values of the five factors for OS were scored (non-hypertension, mGPS, and 6-week COP-NLR = 1 point; number of metastatic sites = 2 points; MSKCC risk group = 3 points) and patients divided into three groups (≤ 1, 2–3, and ≥ 4). The low-risk (≤ 1) group had significantly longer OS than the high-risk (≥ 4) group (median OS: 99.0 vs. 6.2 months, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: This study showed that the COP-NLR within the first 6 weeks of sunitinib treatment had a greater impact on OS than the COP-NLR at the start of sunitinib treatment. The developed prognostic model for OS, including the 6-week COP-NLR, will be useful in decision-making to continue sunitinib in the early treatment stage of patients with mRCC. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-022-10316-w.