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A COVID-19 model incorporating variants, vaccination, waning immunity, and population behavior
Vaccines for COVID-19 have allowed countries to combat the spread of the disease. However, new variants have resulted in significant spikes in cases and raised severe health and economic concerns. We present a COVID-19 model to predict coupled effects of vaccine multiple-dose roll-out strategies, va...
Autores principales: | , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group UK
2022
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9701759/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36437375 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-24967-z |
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author | LaJoie, Zachary Usherwood, Thomas Sampath, Shailen Srivastava, Vikas |
author_facet | LaJoie, Zachary Usherwood, Thomas Sampath, Shailen Srivastava, Vikas |
author_sort | LaJoie, Zachary |
collection | PubMed |
description | Vaccines for COVID-19 have allowed countries to combat the spread of the disease. However, new variants have resulted in significant spikes in cases and raised severe health and economic concerns. We present a COVID-19 model to predict coupled effects of vaccine multiple-dose roll-out strategies, vaccine efficacy, waning immunity, population level of caution, sense of safety, under-reporting of cases, and highly prevalent variants such as the Delta (B.1.617.2) and Omicron (B.1.1.529). The modeling framework can incorporate new variants as they emerge to give critical insights into the new cases and guide public policy decision-making concerning vaccine roll-outs and reopening strategies. The model is shown to recreate the history of COVID-19 for five countries (Germany, India, Japan, South Africa, and the United States). Parameters for crucial aspects of the pandemic, such as population behavior, new variants, vaccination, and waning immunity, can be adjusted to predict pandemic scenarios. The model was used to conduct trend analysis to simulate pandemic dynamics taking into account the societal level of caution, societal sense of safety, and the proportions of individuals vaccinated with first, second, and booster doses. We used the results of serological testing studies to estimate the actual number of cases across countries. The model allows quantification of otherwise hard to quantify aspects such as the infectious power of variants and the effectiveness of government mandates and population behavior. Some example cases are presented by investigating the competitive nature of COVID variants and the effect of different vaccine distribution strategies between immunity groups. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9701759 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-97017592022-11-28 A COVID-19 model incorporating variants, vaccination, waning immunity, and population behavior LaJoie, Zachary Usherwood, Thomas Sampath, Shailen Srivastava, Vikas Sci Rep Article Vaccines for COVID-19 have allowed countries to combat the spread of the disease. However, new variants have resulted in significant spikes in cases and raised severe health and economic concerns. We present a COVID-19 model to predict coupled effects of vaccine multiple-dose roll-out strategies, vaccine efficacy, waning immunity, population level of caution, sense of safety, under-reporting of cases, and highly prevalent variants such as the Delta (B.1.617.2) and Omicron (B.1.1.529). The modeling framework can incorporate new variants as they emerge to give critical insights into the new cases and guide public policy decision-making concerning vaccine roll-outs and reopening strategies. The model is shown to recreate the history of COVID-19 for five countries (Germany, India, Japan, South Africa, and the United States). Parameters for crucial aspects of the pandemic, such as population behavior, new variants, vaccination, and waning immunity, can be adjusted to predict pandemic scenarios. The model was used to conduct trend analysis to simulate pandemic dynamics taking into account the societal level of caution, societal sense of safety, and the proportions of individuals vaccinated with first, second, and booster doses. We used the results of serological testing studies to estimate the actual number of cases across countries. The model allows quantification of otherwise hard to quantify aspects such as the infectious power of variants and the effectiveness of government mandates and population behavior. Some example cases are presented by investigating the competitive nature of COVID variants and the effect of different vaccine distribution strategies between immunity groups. Nature Publishing Group UK 2022-11-27 /pmc/articles/PMC9701759/ /pubmed/36437375 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-24967-z Text en © The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . |
spellingShingle | Article LaJoie, Zachary Usherwood, Thomas Sampath, Shailen Srivastava, Vikas A COVID-19 model incorporating variants, vaccination, waning immunity, and population behavior |
title | A COVID-19 model incorporating variants, vaccination, waning immunity, and population behavior |
title_full | A COVID-19 model incorporating variants, vaccination, waning immunity, and population behavior |
title_fullStr | A COVID-19 model incorporating variants, vaccination, waning immunity, and population behavior |
title_full_unstemmed | A COVID-19 model incorporating variants, vaccination, waning immunity, and population behavior |
title_short | A COVID-19 model incorporating variants, vaccination, waning immunity, and population behavior |
title_sort | covid-19 model incorporating variants, vaccination, waning immunity, and population behavior |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9701759/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36437375 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-24967-z |
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