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Gaussian process forecasts Pseudogymnoascus destructans will cover coterminous United States by 2030

White‐nose syndrome has been decimating populations of several bat species since its first occurrence in the Northeastern United States in the winter 2006–2007. The spread of the disease has been monitored across the continent through the collaboration of many organizations. Inferring the rate of sp...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Wiens, Ashton M., Thogmartin, Wayne E.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9702997/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36447592
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.9547
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author Wiens, Ashton M.
Thogmartin, Wayne E.
author_facet Wiens, Ashton M.
Thogmartin, Wayne E.
author_sort Wiens, Ashton M.
collection PubMed
description White‐nose syndrome has been decimating populations of several bat species since its first occurrence in the Northeastern United States in the winter 2006–2007. The spread of the disease has been monitored across the continent through the collaboration of many organizations. Inferring the rate of spread of the disease and predicting its arrival at new locations is critical when assessing the current and predicting the future status and trends of bat species. We developed a model of disease spread that simultaneously achieves high‐predictive performance, computational efficiency, and interpretability. We modeled white‐nose syndrome spread using Gaussian process variations to infer the spread rate of the disease front, identify areas of anomalous time of arrival, and provide future forecasts of the expected time of arrival throughout North America. Cross‐validation of model predictive performance identified a stationary Gaussian process without an additional residual error process as the best‐supported model. Results indicated that white‐nose syndrome is likely to spread throughout the entire continental United States by 2030. These annually updatable model predictions will be useful in determining the horizon over which disease management actions must take place as well as in status and trend assessments of disease‐affected bats.
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spelling pubmed-97029972022-11-28 Gaussian process forecasts Pseudogymnoascus destructans will cover coterminous United States by 2030 Wiens, Ashton M. Thogmartin, Wayne E. Ecol Evol Research Articles White‐nose syndrome has been decimating populations of several bat species since its first occurrence in the Northeastern United States in the winter 2006–2007. The spread of the disease has been monitored across the continent through the collaboration of many organizations. Inferring the rate of spread of the disease and predicting its arrival at new locations is critical when assessing the current and predicting the future status and trends of bat species. We developed a model of disease spread that simultaneously achieves high‐predictive performance, computational efficiency, and interpretability. We modeled white‐nose syndrome spread using Gaussian process variations to infer the spread rate of the disease front, identify areas of anomalous time of arrival, and provide future forecasts of the expected time of arrival throughout North America. Cross‐validation of model predictive performance identified a stationary Gaussian process without an additional residual error process as the best‐supported model. Results indicated that white‐nose syndrome is likely to spread throughout the entire continental United States by 2030. These annually updatable model predictions will be useful in determining the horizon over which disease management actions must take place as well as in status and trend assessments of disease‐affected bats. John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2022-11-27 /pmc/articles/PMC9702997/ /pubmed/36447592 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.9547 Text en © 2022 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle Research Articles
Wiens, Ashton M.
Thogmartin, Wayne E.
Gaussian process forecasts Pseudogymnoascus destructans will cover coterminous United States by 2030
title Gaussian process forecasts Pseudogymnoascus destructans will cover coterminous United States by 2030
title_full Gaussian process forecasts Pseudogymnoascus destructans will cover coterminous United States by 2030
title_fullStr Gaussian process forecasts Pseudogymnoascus destructans will cover coterminous United States by 2030
title_full_unstemmed Gaussian process forecasts Pseudogymnoascus destructans will cover coterminous United States by 2030
title_short Gaussian process forecasts Pseudogymnoascus destructans will cover coterminous United States by 2030
title_sort gaussian process forecasts pseudogymnoascus destructans will cover coterminous united states by 2030
topic Research Articles
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9702997/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36447592
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.9547
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