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Simulation the potential distribution of Dendrolimus houi and its hosts, Pinus yunnanensis and Cryptomeria fortunei, under climate change in China
Due to climate change, it is significant to explore the impact of rising temperatures on the distribution of Dendrolimus houi Lajonquiere (Lepidoptera) and its host plants, Pinus yunnanensis and Cryptomeria fortunei, and to simulate their suitable future distribution areas in order to provide a theo...
Autores principales: | , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2022
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9703064/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36452097 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2022.1054710 |
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author | Ouyang, Xianheng Lin, Haiping Bai, Shihao Chen, Jie Chen, Anliang |
author_facet | Ouyang, Xianheng Lin, Haiping Bai, Shihao Chen, Jie Chen, Anliang |
author_sort | Ouyang, Xianheng |
collection | PubMed |
description | Due to climate change, it is significant to explore the impact of rising temperatures on the distribution of Dendrolimus houi Lajonquiere (Lepidoptera) and its host plants, Pinus yunnanensis and Cryptomeria fortunei, and to simulate their suitable future distribution areas in order to provide a theoretical basis for the monitoring of, and early warning about, D. houi and the formulation of effective prevention and control policies. Based on the known distribution areas of, and relevant climate data for, D. houi, P. yunnanensis, and C. fortunei, their suitable habitat in China was predicted using the ENMeval data package in order to adjust the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model parameters. The results showed that the regularization multiplier was 0.5 when the feature combination was LQHPT, with a MaxEnt model of lowest complexity and excellent prediction accuracy. The main climate variable affecting the geographical distribution of D. houi, P. yunnanensis, and C. fortunei is temperature, specifically including isothermality, temperature seasonality, maximum temperature of warmest month, minimum temperature of warmest month, average temperature of coldest quarter. The potential suitable distribution areas for P. yunnanensis and D. houi were similar under climate change, mainly distributed in southwest China, while C. fortunei was mainly distributed in southeast China. Under different future-climate scenarios, the areas suitable for the three species will increase, except for P. yunnanensis in the 2070s under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5–8.5. With climate change, all three species were found to have a tendency to migrate to higher latitudes and higher altitudes. The centroids of the areas suitable for P. yunnanensis and D. houi will migrate to the northwest and the centroids of the areas suitable for C. fortunei will migrate to the northeast. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9703064 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-97030642022-11-29 Simulation the potential distribution of Dendrolimus houi and its hosts, Pinus yunnanensis and Cryptomeria fortunei, under climate change in China Ouyang, Xianheng Lin, Haiping Bai, Shihao Chen, Jie Chen, Anliang Front Plant Sci Plant Science Due to climate change, it is significant to explore the impact of rising temperatures on the distribution of Dendrolimus houi Lajonquiere (Lepidoptera) and its host plants, Pinus yunnanensis and Cryptomeria fortunei, and to simulate their suitable future distribution areas in order to provide a theoretical basis for the monitoring of, and early warning about, D. houi and the formulation of effective prevention and control policies. Based on the known distribution areas of, and relevant climate data for, D. houi, P. yunnanensis, and C. fortunei, their suitable habitat in China was predicted using the ENMeval data package in order to adjust the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model parameters. The results showed that the regularization multiplier was 0.5 when the feature combination was LQHPT, with a MaxEnt model of lowest complexity and excellent prediction accuracy. The main climate variable affecting the geographical distribution of D. houi, P. yunnanensis, and C. fortunei is temperature, specifically including isothermality, temperature seasonality, maximum temperature of warmest month, minimum temperature of warmest month, average temperature of coldest quarter. The potential suitable distribution areas for P. yunnanensis and D. houi were similar under climate change, mainly distributed in southwest China, while C. fortunei was mainly distributed in southeast China. Under different future-climate scenarios, the areas suitable for the three species will increase, except for P. yunnanensis in the 2070s under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5–8.5. With climate change, all three species were found to have a tendency to migrate to higher latitudes and higher altitudes. The centroids of the areas suitable for P. yunnanensis and D. houi will migrate to the northwest and the centroids of the areas suitable for C. fortunei will migrate to the northeast. Frontiers Media S.A. 2022-11-14 /pmc/articles/PMC9703064/ /pubmed/36452097 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2022.1054710 Text en Copyright © 2022 Ouyang, Lin, Bai, Chen and Chen https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms. |
spellingShingle | Plant Science Ouyang, Xianheng Lin, Haiping Bai, Shihao Chen, Jie Chen, Anliang Simulation the potential distribution of Dendrolimus houi and its hosts, Pinus yunnanensis and Cryptomeria fortunei, under climate change in China |
title | Simulation the potential distribution of Dendrolimus houi and its hosts, Pinus yunnanensis and Cryptomeria fortunei, under climate change in China |
title_full | Simulation the potential distribution of Dendrolimus houi and its hosts, Pinus yunnanensis and Cryptomeria fortunei, under climate change in China |
title_fullStr | Simulation the potential distribution of Dendrolimus houi and its hosts, Pinus yunnanensis and Cryptomeria fortunei, under climate change in China |
title_full_unstemmed | Simulation the potential distribution of Dendrolimus houi and its hosts, Pinus yunnanensis and Cryptomeria fortunei, under climate change in China |
title_short | Simulation the potential distribution of Dendrolimus houi and its hosts, Pinus yunnanensis and Cryptomeria fortunei, under climate change in China |
title_sort | simulation the potential distribution of dendrolimus houi and its hosts, pinus yunnanensis and cryptomeria fortunei, under climate change in china |
topic | Plant Science |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9703064/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36452097 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2022.1054710 |
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