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Modelling the Reduction in Cancer Incidence After Variations in the Prevalence of Tobacco Consumption in Colombia in the Period 2016-2050
OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the potential impact of tobacco reduction on future cancer incidence in Colombia INTRODUCTION: Colombia has implemented multiple actions that led to reducing smoking prevalence in recent years. However, the numbers of cancer cases and deaths associated with smoking exposure re...
Autores principales: | , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
SAGE Publications
2022
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9703157/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36415920 http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/10732748221121390 |
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author | Perdomo, Sandra López, Julián Torres-Ibargüen, Miguel Zamir Puerto-Jiménez, Devi Nereida de Vries, Esther |
author_facet | Perdomo, Sandra López, Julián Torres-Ibargüen, Miguel Zamir Puerto-Jiménez, Devi Nereida de Vries, Esther |
author_sort | Perdomo, Sandra |
collection | PubMed |
description | OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the potential impact of tobacco reduction on future cancer incidence in Colombia INTRODUCTION: Colombia has implemented multiple actions that led to reducing smoking prevalence in recent years. However, the numbers of cancer cases and deaths associated with smoking exposure remain high highlighting the importance of maintaining efforts to reduce and keep smoking prevalence low. METHODS: We performed a theoretical modeling exercise, projecting expected changes in the incidence of four cancers between 2016 and 2050 under two simulated scenarios of smoking reduction. RESULTS: A cumulative decline of 10% in the prevalence of smoking, a percentage in line with current cigarette taxation policies, will decrease cancer incidence in 2050 by 3.2%, .5%, .2% and .2% of lung, liver, cervical and colorectal cancer incidence, respectively. Complete elimination of tobacco consumption will reduce these by 39.1%, 6.1%, 2.2% and 2.3% respectively, by 2050. CONCLUSION: These results highlight the importance of continuity and reinforcement of current tobacco control programs, including increasing taxation, to further reduce the prevalence of tobacco smoking and reduce cancer cases and deaths in the coming decades. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9703157 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | SAGE Publications |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-97031572022-11-29 Modelling the Reduction in Cancer Incidence After Variations in the Prevalence of Tobacco Consumption in Colombia in the Period 2016-2050 Perdomo, Sandra López, Julián Torres-Ibargüen, Miguel Zamir Puerto-Jiménez, Devi Nereida de Vries, Esther Cancer Control Original Research Article OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the potential impact of tobacco reduction on future cancer incidence in Colombia INTRODUCTION: Colombia has implemented multiple actions that led to reducing smoking prevalence in recent years. However, the numbers of cancer cases and deaths associated with smoking exposure remain high highlighting the importance of maintaining efforts to reduce and keep smoking prevalence low. METHODS: We performed a theoretical modeling exercise, projecting expected changes in the incidence of four cancers between 2016 and 2050 under two simulated scenarios of smoking reduction. RESULTS: A cumulative decline of 10% in the prevalence of smoking, a percentage in line with current cigarette taxation policies, will decrease cancer incidence in 2050 by 3.2%, .5%, .2% and .2% of lung, liver, cervical and colorectal cancer incidence, respectively. Complete elimination of tobacco consumption will reduce these by 39.1%, 6.1%, 2.2% and 2.3% respectively, by 2050. CONCLUSION: These results highlight the importance of continuity and reinforcement of current tobacco control programs, including increasing taxation, to further reduce the prevalence of tobacco smoking and reduce cancer cases and deaths in the coming decades. SAGE Publications 2022-11-22 /pmc/articles/PMC9703157/ /pubmed/36415920 http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/10732748221121390 Text en © The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) which permits non-commercial use, reproduction and distribution of the work without further permission provided the original work is attributed as specified on the SAGE and Open Access pages (https://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/open-access-at-sage). |
spellingShingle | Original Research Article Perdomo, Sandra López, Julián Torres-Ibargüen, Miguel Zamir Puerto-Jiménez, Devi Nereida de Vries, Esther Modelling the Reduction in Cancer Incidence After Variations in the Prevalence of Tobacco Consumption in Colombia in the Period 2016-2050 |
title | Modelling the Reduction in Cancer Incidence After Variations in the Prevalence of Tobacco Consumption in Colombia in the Period 2016-2050 |
title_full | Modelling the Reduction in Cancer Incidence After Variations in the Prevalence of Tobacco Consumption in Colombia in the Period 2016-2050 |
title_fullStr | Modelling the Reduction in Cancer Incidence After Variations in the Prevalence of Tobacco Consumption in Colombia in the Period 2016-2050 |
title_full_unstemmed | Modelling the Reduction in Cancer Incidence After Variations in the Prevalence of Tobacco Consumption in Colombia in the Period 2016-2050 |
title_short | Modelling the Reduction in Cancer Incidence After Variations in the Prevalence of Tobacco Consumption in Colombia in the Period 2016-2050 |
title_sort | modelling the reduction in cancer incidence after variations in the prevalence of tobacco consumption in colombia in the period 2016-2050 |
topic | Original Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9703157/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36415920 http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/10732748221121390 |
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