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Drivers of respiratory syncytial virus seasonal epidemics in children under 5 years in Kilifi, coastal Kenya

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes significant childhood morbidity and mortality in the developing world. The determinants of RSV seasonality are of importance in designing interventions. They are poorly understood in tropical and sub-tropical regions in low- and middle-income countries. Our s...

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Autores principales: Wambua, James, Munywoki, Patrick K., Coletti, Pietro, Nyawanda, Bryan O., Murunga, Nickson, Nokes, D. James, Hens, Niel
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9704647/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36441757
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0278066
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author Wambua, James
Munywoki, Patrick K.
Coletti, Pietro
Nyawanda, Bryan O.
Murunga, Nickson
Nokes, D. James
Hens, Niel
author_facet Wambua, James
Munywoki, Patrick K.
Coletti, Pietro
Nyawanda, Bryan O.
Murunga, Nickson
Nokes, D. James
Hens, Niel
author_sort Wambua, James
collection PubMed
description Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes significant childhood morbidity and mortality in the developing world. The determinants of RSV seasonality are of importance in designing interventions. They are poorly understood in tropical and sub-tropical regions in low- and middle-income countries. Our study utilized long-term surveillance data on cases of RSV associated with severe or very severe pneumonia in children aged 1 day to 59 months admitted to the Kilifi County Hospital. A generalized additive model was used to investigate the association between RSV admissions and meteorological variables (maximum temperature, rainfall, absolute humidity); weekly number of births within the catchment population; and school term dates. Furthermore, a time-series-susceptible-infected-recovered (TSIR) model was used to reconstruct an empirical transmission rate which was used as a dependent variable in linear regression and generalized additive models with meteorological variables and school term dates. Maximum temperature, absolute humidity, and weekly number of births were significantly associated with RSV activity in the generalized additive model. Results from the TSIR model indicated that maximum temperature and absolute humidity were significant factors. Rainfall and school term did not yield significant relationships. Our study indicates that meteorological parameters and weekly number of births potentially play a role in the RSV seasonality in this region. More research is required to explore the underlying mechanisms underpinning the observed relationships.
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spelling pubmed-97046472022-11-29 Drivers of respiratory syncytial virus seasonal epidemics in children under 5 years in Kilifi, coastal Kenya Wambua, James Munywoki, Patrick K. Coletti, Pietro Nyawanda, Bryan O. Murunga, Nickson Nokes, D. James Hens, Niel PLoS One Research Article Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes significant childhood morbidity and mortality in the developing world. The determinants of RSV seasonality are of importance in designing interventions. They are poorly understood in tropical and sub-tropical regions in low- and middle-income countries. Our study utilized long-term surveillance data on cases of RSV associated with severe or very severe pneumonia in children aged 1 day to 59 months admitted to the Kilifi County Hospital. A generalized additive model was used to investigate the association between RSV admissions and meteorological variables (maximum temperature, rainfall, absolute humidity); weekly number of births within the catchment population; and school term dates. Furthermore, a time-series-susceptible-infected-recovered (TSIR) model was used to reconstruct an empirical transmission rate which was used as a dependent variable in linear regression and generalized additive models with meteorological variables and school term dates. Maximum temperature, absolute humidity, and weekly number of births were significantly associated with RSV activity in the generalized additive model. Results from the TSIR model indicated that maximum temperature and absolute humidity were significant factors. Rainfall and school term did not yield significant relationships. Our study indicates that meteorological parameters and weekly number of births potentially play a role in the RSV seasonality in this region. More research is required to explore the underlying mechanisms underpinning the observed relationships. Public Library of Science 2022-11-28 /pmc/articles/PMC9704647/ /pubmed/36441757 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0278066 Text en © 2022 Wambua et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Wambua, James
Munywoki, Patrick K.
Coletti, Pietro
Nyawanda, Bryan O.
Murunga, Nickson
Nokes, D. James
Hens, Niel
Drivers of respiratory syncytial virus seasonal epidemics in children under 5 years in Kilifi, coastal Kenya
title Drivers of respiratory syncytial virus seasonal epidemics in children under 5 years in Kilifi, coastal Kenya
title_full Drivers of respiratory syncytial virus seasonal epidemics in children under 5 years in Kilifi, coastal Kenya
title_fullStr Drivers of respiratory syncytial virus seasonal epidemics in children under 5 years in Kilifi, coastal Kenya
title_full_unstemmed Drivers of respiratory syncytial virus seasonal epidemics in children under 5 years in Kilifi, coastal Kenya
title_short Drivers of respiratory syncytial virus seasonal epidemics in children under 5 years in Kilifi, coastal Kenya
title_sort drivers of respiratory syncytial virus seasonal epidemics in children under 5 years in kilifi, coastal kenya
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9704647/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36441757
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0278066
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