Implication of using cognitive function-related simple questions to stratify the risk of long-term care need: population-based prospective study in Kobe, Japan

BACKGROUND: This study investigated how cognitive function-related simple questions can be used to identify older individuals who are at risk of needing long-term care. METHODS: This cohort study was conducted in Kobe city, Japan. In 2015, the municipal office distributed the Kihon Checklist by post, a 25-item questionnaire including three cognitive function-related questions (questions 18, 19, 20) to citizens aged ≥ 70 years. Need certification is routinely done by Kobe city as part of the national Long-Term Care Insurance Act. The answers to the 2015 questionnaire were merged with need certification data between the questionnaire delivery and the end of December 2019. RESULTS: Of the 77,877 citizens (age: 72.9 ± 2.7 years) who received the questionnaire, 50,154 responded (response rate: 64.4%). During the study period, the cumulative incidence of the need for long-term care was higher in those who did not respond than in those who did (12.5% vs 8.4%; P < 0.001). Among those who responded, the incidence of the need for long-term care was progressively greater as the number of negative answers to cognitive function-related questions increased (5.0%, 8.4%, 15.7% and 30.2% at 4 years’ follow-up, for respondents with, respectively, 0, 1, 2 and 3 negative answers). Similarly, when the need certification for long-term care was confined to that accompanied by dementia, the incidence also rose as the number of negative responses to the cognitive function-related questions increased (3.4%, 6.5%, 13.7% and 27.9% for respondents with, respectively, 0, 1, 2 and 3 negative answers). Using multivariate Cox regression analysis, all three cognitive function-related questions were predictive of the need for long-term care, and question 18 (about memory loss) had the highest hazard ratio for predicting the need for long-term care accompanied by dementia. CONCLUSIONS: Use of cognitive function-related simple questions may help identify older adults at risk for needing long-term care, suggesting their potential value for use in administrative and policy approaches aimed at reducing the societal burden of dementia. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12961-022-00920-4.