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Strain-stream model of epidemic spread in application to COVID-19
ABSTRACT: The recently developed model of the epidemic spread of two virus strains in a closed population is generalized to the situation typical for the couple of strains delta and omicron, when there is a high probability of omicron infection soon enough after recovering from delta infection. This...
| Autores principales: | , |
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| Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
| Lenguaje: | English |
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Springer Berlin Heidelberg
2022
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| Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9708149/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36467616 http://dx.doi.org/10.1140/epjb/s10051-022-00457-z |
| Sumario: | ABSTRACT: The recently developed model of the epidemic spread of two virus strains in a closed population is generalized to the situation typical for the couple of strains delta and omicron, when there is a high probability of omicron infection soon enough after recovering from delta infection. This model can be considered as a kind of combination of SIR and SIS models for the case of competition of two strains of the same virus with different contagiousness in a population. The obtained equations and results can be directly implemented for practical calculations of the replacement of strains of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. A comparison between the estimated replacement time and the corresponding statistics shows reasonable agreement. GRAPHIC ABSTRACT: [Image: see text] |
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