Strain-stream model of epidemic spread in application to COVID-19

ABSTRACT: The recently developed model of the epidemic spread of two virus strains in a closed population is generalized to the situation typical for the couple of strains delta and omicron, when there is a high probability of omicron infection soon enough after recovering from delta infection. This...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Trigger, S. A., Ignatov, A. M.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2022
Materias:
Regular Article - Statistical and Nonlinear Physics
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9708149/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36467616
http://dx.doi.org/10.1140/epjb/s10051-022-00457-z
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author Trigger, S. A.
Ignatov, A. M.
author_facet Trigger, S. A.
Ignatov, A. M.
author_sort Trigger, S. A.
collection PubMed
description ABSTRACT: The recently developed model of the epidemic spread of two virus strains in a closed population is generalized to the situation typical for the couple of strains delta and omicron, when there is a high probability of omicron infection soon enough after recovering from delta infection. This model can be considered as a kind of combination of SIR and SIS models for the case of competition of two strains of the same virus with different contagiousness in a population. The obtained equations and results can be directly implemented for practical calculations of the replacement of strains of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. A comparison between the estimated replacement time and the corresponding statistics shows reasonable agreement. GRAPHIC ABSTRACT: [Image: see text]
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spelling pubmed-97081492022-11-30 Strain-stream model of epidemic spread in application to COVID-19 Trigger, S. A. Ignatov, A. M. Eur Phys J B Regular Article - Statistical and Nonlinear Physics ABSTRACT: The recently developed model of the epidemic spread of two virus strains in a closed population is generalized to the situation typical for the couple of strains delta and omicron, when there is a high probability of omicron infection soon enough after recovering from delta infection. This model can be considered as a kind of combination of SIR and SIS models for the case of competition of two strains of the same virus with different contagiousness in a population. The obtained equations and results can be directly implemented for practical calculations of the replacement of strains of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. A comparison between the estimated replacement time and the corresponding statistics shows reasonable agreement. GRAPHIC ABSTRACT: [Image: see text] Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2022-11-29 2022 /pmc/articles/PMC9708149/ /pubmed/36467616 http://dx.doi.org/10.1140/epjb/s10051-022-00457-z Text en © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to EDP Sciences, SIF and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2022, Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law. This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.
spellingShingle Regular Article - Statistical and Nonlinear Physics
Trigger, S. A.
Ignatov, A. M.
Strain-stream model of epidemic spread in application to COVID-19
title Strain-stream model of epidemic spread in application to COVID-19
title_full Strain-stream model of epidemic spread in application to COVID-19
title_fullStr Strain-stream model of epidemic spread in application to COVID-19
title_full_unstemmed Strain-stream model of epidemic spread in application to COVID-19
title_short Strain-stream model of epidemic spread in application to COVID-19
title_sort strain-stream model of epidemic spread in application to covid-19
topic Regular Article - Statistical and Nonlinear Physics
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9708149/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36467616
http://dx.doi.org/10.1140/epjb/s10051-022-00457-z
work_keys_str_mv AT triggersa strainstreammodelofepidemicspreadinapplicationtocovid19
AT ignatovam strainstreammodelofepidemicspreadinapplicationtocovid19

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