Incorporating distance metrics and temporal trends to refine mixed stock analysis

The distribution of marine organisms is shaped by geographic distance and oceanographic features like currents. Among migratory species, individuals from multiple populations may share feeding habitats seasonally or across life stages. Here, we introduce a modification for many-to-many mixed stock models to include distance between breeding and foraging sites as an ecological covariate and evaluate how the composition of green turtle, Chelonia mydas, juvenile mixed stock aggregations changed in response to population growth over time. Our modified many-to-many model is more informative and generally tightens credible intervals over models that do not incorporate distance. Moreover, we identified a decrease in genetic diversity in a Florida nesting site and two juvenile aggregations. Mixed stock aggregations in central Florida have changed from multiple sources to fewer dominant source populations over the past ~ 20 years. We demonstrate that shifts in contributions from source populations to mixed stock aggregations are likely associated with nesting population growth. Furthermore, our results highlight the importance of long-term monitoring and the need for periodical reassessment of reproductive populations and juvenile aggregations. Understanding how mixed stock aggregations change over time and how different life stages are connected is fundamental for the development of successful conservation plans for imperiled species.