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Social Network Analysis of Ebola Virus Disease During the 2014 Outbreak in Sukudu, Sierra Leone

BACKGROUND: Transmission by unreported cases has been proposed as a reason for the 2013–2016 Ebola virus (EBOV) epidemic decline in West Africa, but studies that test this hypothesis are lacking. We examined a transmission chain within social networks in Sukudu village to assess spread and transmiss...

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Autores principales: Hazel, Ashley, Davidson, Michelle C, Rogers, Abu, Barrie, M Bailor, Freeman, Adams, Mbayoh, Mohamed, Kamara, Mohamed, Blumberg, Seth, Lietman, Thomas M, Rutherford, George W, Jones, James Holland, Porco, Travis C, Richardson, Eugene T, Kelly, J Daniel
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Oxford University Press 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9709704/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36467298
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ofid/ofac593
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author Hazel, Ashley
Davidson, Michelle C
Rogers, Abu
Barrie, M Bailor
Freeman, Adams
Mbayoh, Mohamed
Kamara, Mohamed
Blumberg, Seth
Lietman, Thomas M
Rutherford, George W
Jones, James Holland
Porco, Travis C
Richardson, Eugene T
Kelly, J Daniel
author_facet Hazel, Ashley
Davidson, Michelle C
Rogers, Abu
Barrie, M Bailor
Freeman, Adams
Mbayoh, Mohamed
Kamara, Mohamed
Blumberg, Seth
Lietman, Thomas M
Rutherford, George W
Jones, James Holland
Porco, Travis C
Richardson, Eugene T
Kelly, J Daniel
author_sort Hazel, Ashley
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: Transmission by unreported cases has been proposed as a reason for the 2013–2016 Ebola virus (EBOV) epidemic decline in West Africa, but studies that test this hypothesis are lacking. We examined a transmission chain within social networks in Sukudu village to assess spread and transmission burnout. METHODS: Network data were collected in 2 phases: (1) serological and contact information from Ebola cases (n = 48, including unreported); and (2) interviews (n = 148), including Ebola survivors (n = 13), to identify key social interactions. Social links to the transmission chain were used to calculate cumulative incidence proportion as the number of EBOV-infected people in the network divided by total network size. RESULTS: The sample included 148 participants and 1522 contacts, comprising 10 social networks: 3 had strong links (>50% of cases) to the transmission chain: household sharing (largely kinship), leisure time, and talking about important things (both largely non-kin). Overall cumulative incidence for these networks was 37 of 311 (12%). Unreported cases did not have higher network centrality than reported cases. CONCLUSIONS: Although this study did not find evidence that explained epidemic decline in Sukudu, it excluded potential reasons (eg, unreported cases, herd immunity) and identified 3 social interactions in EBOV transmission.
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spelling pubmed-97097042022-12-01 Social Network Analysis of Ebola Virus Disease During the 2014 Outbreak in Sukudu, Sierra Leone Hazel, Ashley Davidson, Michelle C Rogers, Abu Barrie, M Bailor Freeman, Adams Mbayoh, Mohamed Kamara, Mohamed Blumberg, Seth Lietman, Thomas M Rutherford, George W Jones, James Holland Porco, Travis C Richardson, Eugene T Kelly, J Daniel Open Forum Infect Dis Major Article BACKGROUND: Transmission by unreported cases has been proposed as a reason for the 2013–2016 Ebola virus (EBOV) epidemic decline in West Africa, but studies that test this hypothesis are lacking. We examined a transmission chain within social networks in Sukudu village to assess spread and transmission burnout. METHODS: Network data were collected in 2 phases: (1) serological and contact information from Ebola cases (n = 48, including unreported); and (2) interviews (n = 148), including Ebola survivors (n = 13), to identify key social interactions. Social links to the transmission chain were used to calculate cumulative incidence proportion as the number of EBOV-infected people in the network divided by total network size. RESULTS: The sample included 148 participants and 1522 contacts, comprising 10 social networks: 3 had strong links (>50% of cases) to the transmission chain: household sharing (largely kinship), leisure time, and talking about important things (both largely non-kin). Overall cumulative incidence for these networks was 37 of 311 (12%). Unreported cases did not have higher network centrality than reported cases. CONCLUSIONS: Although this study did not find evidence that explained epidemic decline in Sukudu, it excluded potential reasons (eg, unreported cases, herd immunity) and identified 3 social interactions in EBOV transmission. Oxford University Press 2022-11-03 /pmc/articles/PMC9709704/ /pubmed/36467298 http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ofid/ofac593 Text en © The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Infectious Diseases Society of America. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which permits non-commercial reproduction and distribution of the work, in any medium, provided the original work is not altered or transformed in any way, and that the work is properly cited. For commercial re-use, please contact journals.permissions@oup.com
spellingShingle Major Article
Hazel, Ashley
Davidson, Michelle C
Rogers, Abu
Barrie, M Bailor
Freeman, Adams
Mbayoh, Mohamed
Kamara, Mohamed
Blumberg, Seth
Lietman, Thomas M
Rutherford, George W
Jones, James Holland
Porco, Travis C
Richardson, Eugene T
Kelly, J Daniel
Social Network Analysis of Ebola Virus Disease During the 2014 Outbreak in Sukudu, Sierra Leone
title Social Network Analysis of Ebola Virus Disease During the 2014 Outbreak in Sukudu, Sierra Leone
title_full Social Network Analysis of Ebola Virus Disease During the 2014 Outbreak in Sukudu, Sierra Leone
title_fullStr Social Network Analysis of Ebola Virus Disease During the 2014 Outbreak in Sukudu, Sierra Leone
title_full_unstemmed Social Network Analysis of Ebola Virus Disease During the 2014 Outbreak in Sukudu, Sierra Leone
title_short Social Network Analysis of Ebola Virus Disease During the 2014 Outbreak in Sukudu, Sierra Leone
title_sort social network analysis of ebola virus disease during the 2014 outbreak in sukudu, sierra leone
topic Major Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9709704/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36467298
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ofid/ofac593
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