Retinal age gap as a predictive biomarker of stroke risk

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study is to investigate the association of retinal age gap with the risk of incident stroke and its predictive value for incident stroke. METHODS: A total of 80,169 fundus images from 46,969 participants in the UK Biobank cohort met the image quality standard. A deep learning model was constructed based on 19,200 fundus images of 11,052 disease-free participants at baseline for age prediction. Retinal age gap (retinal age predicted based on the fundus image minus chronological age) was generated for the remaining 35,917 participants. Stroke events were determined by data linkage to hospital records on admissions and diagnoses, and national death registers, whichever occurred earliest. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate the effect of retinal age gap on risk of stroke. Logistic regression models were used to estimate the predictive value of retinal age and well-established risk factors in 10-year stroke risk. RESULTS: A total of 35,304 participants without history of stroke at baseline were included. During a median follow-up of 5.83 years, 282 (0.80%) participants had stroke events. In the fully adjusted model, each one-year increase in the retinal age gap was associated with a 4% increase in the risk of stroke (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.04, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.00–1.08, P = 0.029). Compared to participants with retinal age gap in the first quintile, participants with retinal age gap in the fifth quintile had significantly higher risks of stroke events (HR = 2.37, 95% CI: 1.37–4.10, P = 0.002). The predictive capability of retinal age alone was comparable to the well-established risk factor-based model (AUC=0.676 vs AUC=0.661, p=0.511). CONCLUSIONS: We found that retinal age gap was significantly associated with incident stroke, implying the potential of retinal age gap as a predictive biomarker of stroke risk. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12916-022-02620-w.