Construction and validation of an angiogenesis-related scoring model to predict prognosis, tumor immune microenvironment and therapeutic response in hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most common malignant tumors in the world with high morbidity and mortality. Identifying an effective marker for predicting the prognosis and therapeutic response is extremely meaningful. Angiogenesis-related genes (ARGs) play important roles in the tumor progression and immune-suppressive microenvironment formation. METHODS: The differential expressed ARGs associated with the prognosis of HCC were identified in the TCGA dataset. Univariate Cox and least absolute shrinkage selection operator (LASSO) regression were applied to construct a ARGs Scoring model. The prognostic value of the ARGs Scoring model was assessed by Cox regression, Kaplan-Meier (KM) and ROC curve analyses. Then the model was further validated in an external dataset, ICGC dataset. The patients were split into two groups based on the ARGs Score and the clinical features were compared. TIMER, CIBERSORT and xCell algorithms were utilized to analyze the correlation between the ARGs Score and tumor immune microenvironment (TIME). Furthermore, we analyzed the efficacy of the model in predicting the therapeutic response for immunotherapy, targeted therapy and TACE treatment in different cohorts. RESULTS: A total of 97 differential expressed ARGs were identified relating to the prognosis of HCC patients from the TCGA dataset. Then the ARGs Scoring model based on a 9-gene signature was constructed using the Cox and LASSO regression analyses. Higher ARGs Score had a poor clinical outcome and was considered to be an independent prognostic predictor for HCC in the multivariate Cox analysis. The ARGs Score was related to the enrichment of various immune cells, such as CD4+ T cells, Treg, macrophage, neutrophil and dendritic cells, exhibiting a more immunosuppressive phenotype. Higher ARGs Score was correlated with higher expression of immune checkpoint genes and poor response to immunotherapy. Furthermore, higher ARGs Score indicated poor therapeutic response in the sorafenib and TACE treatment cohorts, individually. CONCLUSIONS: The ARGs Scoring model exhibited robust predictive value for the prognosis and TIME for HCC patients. Higher ARGs Score indicated poor therapeutic response of the immunotherapy, sorafenib and TACE treatment. The ARGs Scoring model could be used as a biomarker to help physicians to develop more individualized treatment for HCC patients.