Predicting post-radiation genitourinary hospital admissions in patients with localised prostate cancer

PURPOSE: The risk of treatment-related toxicity is important for patients with localised prostate cancer to consider when deciding between treatment options. We developed a model to predict hospitalisation for radiation-induced genitourinary toxicity based on patient characteristics. METHODS: The prospective South Australian Prostate Cancer Clinical Outcomes registry was used to identify men with localised prostate cancer who underwent curative intent external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) between 1998 and 2019. Multivariable Cox proportional regression was performed. Model discrimination, calibration, internal validation and utility were assessed using C-statistics and area under ROC, calibration plots, bootstrapping, and decision curve analysis, respectively. RESULTS: There were 3,243 patients treated with EBRT included, of which 644 (20%) patients had a treated-related admission. In multivariable analysis, diabetes (HR 1.35, 95% CI 1.13–1.60, p < 0.001), smoking (HR 1.78, 95% CI 1.40–2.12, p < 0.001), and bladder outlet obstruction (BOO) without transurethral resection of prostate (TURP) (HR 7.49, 95% CI 6.18–9.08 p < 0.001) followed by BOO with TURP (HR 4.96, 95% CI 4.10–5.99 p < 0.001) were strong independent predictors of hospitalisation (censor-adjusted c-statistic = 0.80). The model was well-calibrated (AUC = 0.76). The global proportional hazards were met. In internal validation through bootstrapping, the model was reasonably discriminate at five (AUC 0.75) years after radiotherapy. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study to develop a predictive model for genitourinary toxicity requiring hospitalisation amongst men with prostate cancer treated with EBRT. Patients with localised prostate cancer and concurrent BOO may benefit from TURP before EBRT. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00345-022-04212-y.