Predicting disease-free survival in colorectal cancer by circulating tumor DNA methylation markers

BACKGROUND: Recurrence represents a well-known poor prognostic factor for colorectal cancer (CRC) patients. This study aimed to establish an effective prognostic prediction model based on noninvasive circulating tumor DNA methylation markers for CRC patients receiving radical surgery. RESULTS: Two methylation markers (cg11186405 and cg17296166) were identified by Cox regression and receiver operating characteristics, which could classify CRC patients into high recurrence risk and low recurrence risk group. The 3-year disease-free survival was significantly different between CRC patients with low and high recurrence risk [Training set: hazard ratio (HR) 28.776, 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.594–230.400; P = 0.002; Validation set: HR 7.796, 95% CI 1.425–42.660, P = 0.018]. The nomogram based on the above two methylation markers and TNM stage was established which demonstrated robust prognostic prediction potential, as evidenced by the decision curve analysis result. CONCLUSIONS: A cell-free DNA methylation model consisting of two DNA methylation markers is a promising method for prognostic prediction in CRC patients. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13148-022-01383-8.