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Development and validation of a machine learning model to predict the risk of lymph node metastasis in renal carcinoma

SIMPLE SUMMARY: Studies have shown that about 30% of kidney cancer patients will have metastasis, and lymph node metastasis (LNM) may be related to a poor prognosis. Our retrospective study aims to provide a reliable machine learning-based model to predict the occurrence of LNM in kidney cancer. We...

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Autores principales: Feng, Xiaowei, Hong, Tao, Liu, Wencai, Xu, Chan, Li, Wanying, Yang, Bing, Song, Yang, Li, Ting, Li, Wenle, Zhou, Hui, Yin, Chengliang
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Frontiers Media S.A. 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9716136/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36465636
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fendo.2022.1054358
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author Feng, Xiaowei
Hong, Tao
Liu, Wencai
Xu, Chan
Li, Wanying
Yang, Bing
Song, Yang
Li, Ting
Li, Wenle
Zhou, Hui
Yin, Chengliang
author_facet Feng, Xiaowei
Hong, Tao
Liu, Wencai
Xu, Chan
Li, Wanying
Yang, Bing
Song, Yang
Li, Ting
Li, Wenle
Zhou, Hui
Yin, Chengliang
author_sort Feng, Xiaowei
collection PubMed
description SIMPLE SUMMARY: Studies have shown that about 30% of kidney cancer patients will have metastasis, and lymph node metastasis (LNM) may be related to a poor prognosis. Our retrospective study aims to provide a reliable machine learning-based model to predict the occurrence of LNM in kidney cancer. We screened the pathological grade, liver metastasis, M staging, primary site, T staging, and tumor size from the training group (n=39016) formed by the SEER database and the validation group (n=771) formed by the medical center. Independent predictors of LNM in cancer patients. Using six different algorithms to build a prediction model, it is found that the prediction performance of the XGB model in the training group and the validation group is significantly better than any other machine learning model. The results show that prediction tools based on machine learning can accurately predict the probability of LNM in patients with kidney cancer and have satisfactory clinical application prospects. BACKGROUND: Lymph node metastasis (LNM) is associated with the prognosis of patients with kidney cancer. This study aimed to provide reliable machine learning-based (ML-based) models to predict the probability of LNM in kidney cancer. METHODS: Data on patients diagnosed with kidney cancer were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and Outcomes (SEER) database from 2010 to 2017, and variables were filtered by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. Statistically significant risk factors were used to build predictive models. We used 10-fold cross-validation in the validation of the model. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to assess the performance of the model. Correlation heat maps were used to investigate the correlation of features using permutation analysis to assess the importance of predictors. Probability density functions (PDFs) and clinical utility curves (CUCs) were used to determine clinical utility thresholds. RESULTS: The training cohort of this study included 39,016 patients, and the validation cohort included 771 patients. In the two cohorts, 2544 (6.5%) and 66 (8.1%) patients had LNM, respectively. Pathological grade, liver metastasis, M stage, primary site, T stage, and tumor size were independent predictive factors of LNM. In both model validation, the XGB model significantly outperformed any of the machine learning models with an AUC value of 0.916.A web calculator (https://share.streamlit.io/liuwencai4/renal_lnm/main/renal_lnm.py) were built based on the XGB model. Based on the PDF and CUC, we suggested 54.6% as a threshold probability for guiding the diagnosis of LNM, which could distinguish about 89% of LNM patients. CONCLUSIONS: The predictive tool based on machine learning can precisely indicate the probability of LNM in kidney cancer patients and has a satisfying application prospect in clinical practice.
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spelling pubmed-97161362022-12-03 Development and validation of a machine learning model to predict the risk of lymph node metastasis in renal carcinoma Feng, Xiaowei Hong, Tao Liu, Wencai Xu, Chan Li, Wanying Yang, Bing Song, Yang Li, Ting Li, Wenle Zhou, Hui Yin, Chengliang Front Endocrinol (Lausanne) Endocrinology SIMPLE SUMMARY: Studies have shown that about 30% of kidney cancer patients will have metastasis, and lymph node metastasis (LNM) may be related to a poor prognosis. Our retrospective study aims to provide a reliable machine learning-based model to predict the occurrence of LNM in kidney cancer. We screened the pathological grade, liver metastasis, M staging, primary site, T staging, and tumor size from the training group (n=39016) formed by the SEER database and the validation group (n=771) formed by the medical center. Independent predictors of LNM in cancer patients. Using six different algorithms to build a prediction model, it is found that the prediction performance of the XGB model in the training group and the validation group is significantly better than any other machine learning model. The results show that prediction tools based on machine learning can accurately predict the probability of LNM in patients with kidney cancer and have satisfactory clinical application prospects. BACKGROUND: Lymph node metastasis (LNM) is associated with the prognosis of patients with kidney cancer. This study aimed to provide reliable machine learning-based (ML-based) models to predict the probability of LNM in kidney cancer. METHODS: Data on patients diagnosed with kidney cancer were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and Outcomes (SEER) database from 2010 to 2017, and variables were filtered by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. Statistically significant risk factors were used to build predictive models. We used 10-fold cross-validation in the validation of the model. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to assess the performance of the model. Correlation heat maps were used to investigate the correlation of features using permutation analysis to assess the importance of predictors. Probability density functions (PDFs) and clinical utility curves (CUCs) were used to determine clinical utility thresholds. RESULTS: The training cohort of this study included 39,016 patients, and the validation cohort included 771 patients. In the two cohorts, 2544 (6.5%) and 66 (8.1%) patients had LNM, respectively. Pathological grade, liver metastasis, M stage, primary site, T stage, and tumor size were independent predictive factors of LNM. In both model validation, the XGB model significantly outperformed any of the machine learning models with an AUC value of 0.916.A web calculator (https://share.streamlit.io/liuwencai4/renal_lnm/main/renal_lnm.py) were built based on the XGB model. Based on the PDF and CUC, we suggested 54.6% as a threshold probability for guiding the diagnosis of LNM, which could distinguish about 89% of LNM patients. CONCLUSIONS: The predictive tool based on machine learning can precisely indicate the probability of LNM in kidney cancer patients and has a satisfying application prospect in clinical practice. Frontiers Media S.A. 2022-11-18 /pmc/articles/PMC9716136/ /pubmed/36465636 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fendo.2022.1054358 Text en Copyright © 2022 Feng, Hong, Liu, Xu, Li, Yang, Song, Li, Li, Zhou and Yin https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
spellingShingle Endocrinology
Feng, Xiaowei
Hong, Tao
Liu, Wencai
Xu, Chan
Li, Wanying
Yang, Bing
Song, Yang
Li, Ting
Li, Wenle
Zhou, Hui
Yin, Chengliang
Development and validation of a machine learning model to predict the risk of lymph node metastasis in renal carcinoma
title Development and validation of a machine learning model to predict the risk of lymph node metastasis in renal carcinoma
title_full Development and validation of a machine learning model to predict the risk of lymph node metastasis in renal carcinoma
title_fullStr Development and validation of a machine learning model to predict the risk of lymph node metastasis in renal carcinoma
title_full_unstemmed Development and validation of a machine learning model to predict the risk of lymph node metastasis in renal carcinoma
title_short Development and validation of a machine learning model to predict the risk of lymph node metastasis in renal carcinoma
title_sort development and validation of a machine learning model to predict the risk of lymph node metastasis in renal carcinoma
topic Endocrinology
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9716136/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36465636
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fendo.2022.1054358
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