A cancer-associated fibroblast gene signature predicts prognosis and therapy response in patients with pancreatic cancer

Pancreatic cancer is a lethal malignancy with a 5-year survival rate of about 10% in the United States, and it is becoming an increasingly prominent cause of cancer death. Among pancreatic cancer patients, pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) accounts for more than 90% of all cases and has a very poor prognosis with an average survival of only 1 year in about 18% of all tumor stages. In the past years, there has been an increasing interest in cancer-associated fibroblasts (CAFs) and their roles in PDAC. Recent data reveals that CAFs in PDAC are heterogeneous and various CAF subtypes have been demonstrated to promote tumor development while others hinder cancer proliferation. Furthermore, CAFs and other stromal populations can be potentially used as novel prognostic markers in cancer. In the present study, in order to evaluate the prognostic value of CAFs in PDAC, CAF infiltration rate was evaluated in 4 PDAC datasets of TCGA, GEO, and ArrayExpress databases and differentially expressed genes (DEGs) between CAF-high and CAF-low patients were identified. Subsequently, a CAF-based gene expression signature was developed and studied for its association with overall survival (OS). Additionally, functional enrichment analysis, somatic alteration analysis, and prognostic risk model construction was conducted on the identified DEGs. Finally, oncoPredict algorithm was implemented to assess drug sensitivity prediction between high- and low-risk cohorts. Our results revealed that CAF risk-high patients have a worse survival rate and increased CAF infiltration is a poor prognostic indicator in pancreatic cancer. Functional enrichment analysis also revealed that “extracellular matrix organization” and “vasculature development” were the top enriched pathways among the identified DEGs. We also developed a panel of 12 genes, which in additional to its prognostic value, could predict higher chemotherapy resistance rate. This CAF-based panel can be potentially utilized alone or in conjunction with other clinical parameters to make early predictions and prognosticate responsiveness to treatment in PDAC patients. Indeed, it is necessary to conduct extensive prospective investigations to confirm the clinical utility of these findings.