Magnetic resonance imaging predictors (cartilage, osteophytes and meniscus) of prevalent and 3-year incident medial and lateral tibiofemoral knee joint tenderness and patellofemoral grind

OBJECTIVE: To identify magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) predictors (cartilage [C], osteophytes [O] and meniscus [M] scores) of prevalent and 3-year incident medial tibiofemoral (MTF) and lateral tibiofemoral (LTF) knee joint tenderness and patellofemoral (PF) grind. METHODS: Population-based knee pain cohort aged 40–79 was assessed at baseline (N = 255), 3- and 7-year follow-up (N = 108 × 2 = 216). COM scores were measured at 6/8/6 subregions respectively. Age-sex-BMI adjusted logistic models predicted prevalence versus relevant COM predictors (medial, lateral or patellar / trochlear groove scores). Fully adjusted models also included all relevant COM predictors. Binary generalized estimating equations models predicting 3-year incidence were also adjusted for individual follow-up time between cycles. RESULTS: Significant predictors of prevalent MTF tenderness: medial femoral cartilage (fully adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.84; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.11, 3.05), female (aOR = 3.05; 1.67, 5.58), BMI (aOR = 1.53 per 5 units BMI; 1.10, 2.11). Predictors of prevalent LTF tenderness: female (aOR = 2.18; 1.22, 3.90). There were no predictors of prevalent PF grind in the fully adjusted model. However, medial patellar osteophytes was predictive in the age-sex-BMI adjusted model. There were no predictors of 3-year incident MTF tenderness. Predictors of 3-year incident LTF tenderness: female (aOR = 3.83; 1.25, 11.77). Predictors of 3-year incident PF grind: lateral patellar osteophytes (aOR = 4.82; 1.69, 13.77). In the age-sex-BMI adjusted model, patellar cartilage was also a predictor. CONCLUSION: We explored potential MRI predictors of prevalent and 3-year incident MTF/LTF knee joint tenderness and PF grind. These findings could guide preemptive strategies aimed at reducing these symptoms in the present and future (3-year incidence).