Surveillance Strategy after Curative Resection for Oesophageal Squamous Cell Cancer Using the Hazard Function

BACKGROUND: The optimal surveillance period and frequency after curative resection for oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) remain unclear, and current guidelines are mainly based on traditional Kaplan–Meier analyses of cumulative incidence rather than risk analysis. The aim of this study was to determine a suitable follow-up surveillance program following oesophagectomy for OSCC using the hazard function. METHODS: A total of 1187 patients who underwent curative resection for OSCC between 2000 and 2014 were retrospectively analyzed. The changes in the estimated hazard rates (HRs) of recurrence over time were analyzed according to tumour-node-metastasis stage. RESULTS: Four hundred seventy-eight (40.2%) patients experienced recurrence during the follow-up period (median, 116.5 months). The risk of recurrence peaked at 9.2 months after treatment (HR = 0.0219) and then decreased to half the peak value at 24 months post-surgery. The HRs for Stage I and II patients were low (< 0.007) post-treatment. The HR for Stage III patients peaked at 9.9 months (HR = 0.031) and the hazard curve declined to a plateau at 30 months. Furthermore, the HR peaked at 10.8 months (HR = 0.052) in Stage IV patients and then gradually declined from 50 months. CONCLUSIONS: According to tumour-node-metastasis stage, changes in the HRs of postoperative recurrence in OSCC varied significantly. Intensive surveillance should be undertaken for 3 years in Stage III patients and for 4 years in Stage IV patients, followed by annual screening. For Stage I OSCC patients, a reduction in the surveillance intensity could be taken into consideration. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-022-10345-5.