Climate Change and Respiratory Diseases: Relationship between SARS and Climatic Parameters and Impact of Climate Change on the Geographical Distribution of SARS in Iran

HIGHLIGHTS: This is the first study on the effects of climate change on SARS in Iran. The result shows a positive association between the incidence of SARS and bio-climatic variables. This study shows the hospital admissions for climate-related respiratory diseases in Iran will increase by 36% in 2020–2050. The geographical distribution of the SARS will also change in 2050 in Iran. ABSTRACT: Climate change affects human health, and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) incidence is one of the health impacts of climate change. This study is a retrospective cohort study. Data have been collected from the Iranian Ministry of Health and Medical Education between 17 February 2016 and17 February 2018. The Neural Network Model has been used to predict SARS infection. Based on the results of the multivariate Poisson regression and the analysis of the coexistence of the variables, the minimum daily temperature was positively associated with the risk of SARS in men and women. The risk of SARS has increased in women and men with increasing daily rainfall. According to the result, by changes in bioclimatic parameters, the number of SARS patients will be increased in cities of Iran. Our study has shown a significant relationship between SARS and the climatic variables by the type of climate and gender. The estimates suggest that hospital admissions for climate-related respiratory diseases in Iran will increase by 36% from 2020 to 2050. This study demonstrates one of the health impacts of climate change. Policymakers can control the risks of climate change by mitigation and adaptation strategists.