Machine learning and synthetic outcome estimation for individualised antimicrobial cessation

The decision on when it is appropriate to stop antimicrobial treatment in an individual patient is complex and under-researched. Ceasing too early can drive treatment failure, while excessive treatment risks adverse events. Under- and over-treatment can promote the development of antimicrobial resistance (AMR). We extracted routinely collected electronic health record data from the MIMIC-IV database for 18,988 patients (22,845 unique stays) who received intravenous antibiotic treatment during an intensive care unit (ICU) admission. A model was developed that utilises a recurrent neural network autoencoder and a synthetic control-based approach to estimate patients’ ICU length of stay (LOS) and mortality outcomes for any given day, under the alternative scenarios of if they were to stop vs. continue antibiotic treatment. Control days where our model should reproduce labels demonstrated minimal difference for both stopping and continuing scenarios indicating estimations are reliable (LOS results of 0.24 and 0.42 days mean delta, 1.93 and 3.76 root mean squared error, respectively). Meanwhile, impact days where we assess the potential effect of the unobserved scenario showed that stopping antibiotic therapy earlier had a statistically significant shorter LOS (mean reduction 2.71 days, [Formula: see text]-value <0.01). No impact on mortality was observed. In summary, we have developed a model to reliably estimate patient outcomes under the contrasting scenarios of stopping or continuing antibiotic treatment. Retrospective results are in line with previous clinical studies that demonstrate shorter antibiotic treatment durations are often non-inferior. With additional development into a clinical decision support system, this could be used to support individualised antimicrobial cessation decision-making, reduce the excessive use of antibiotics, and address the problem of AMR.