Blood monocyte levels predict the risk of acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a retrospective case–control study

Monocytes were critical cells in the innate immune system. Monocyte recruitment to the lungs is a crucial process of pathophysiology in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Current evidence on the association between the occurrence of acute exacerbations of COPD (AECOPD) and monocytes was unclear. This study aimed to examine whether blood monocytes are associated with the occurrence of AECOPD and to determine the specific blood monocyte level to predict AECOPD. A retrospective case–control study was conducted at Changhua Christian Hospital. A total of 444 eligible patients with COPD were included between January 2017 and December 2019. Restricted cubic splines were used to analyze the nonlinear relationships between continuous white blood cell values and the occurrence of AECOPD. The association between monocytes and the occurrence of AECOPD was assessed using the logistic, lasso, and ridge regression models. Restricted cubic splines revealed nonlinear associations among the monocyte level, the continuous value of the eosinophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, and the occurrence of AECOPD. The lowest risk of occurrence of AECOPD ranged from 7.4 to 10%; < 7.4% with an absolute count < 0.62 or > 10% indicated significant risk. No significant association was noted between the eosinophil-to-lymphocyte ratio categories in the tertiles (< 0.049, 0.049 to < 0.122, and ≥ 0.122) and the risk of AECOPD. A significantly higher risk was noted in the association of the occurrence of AECOPD with the CAT score; mMRC score; wheezing cough; preexisting chronic pulmonary disease; hypertension and malignancy; use of dual- and triple, and oral long-acting bronchodilators for COPD treatment; and WBC count. We reported a nonlinear relationship between monocytes and the occurrence of AECOPD. Patients with monocyte percentage of > 10% or < 7.4% with an absolute count < 0.62 had higher risk of occurrence of AECOPD. Overall, our study demonstrated the specific value of monocytes in identifying high risks of the occurrence of AECOPD; this value is an easy-to-obtain, inexpensive biomarker in patients with AECOPD and should be further investigated in future prospective clinical studies.