Predicting the risk of acute kidney injury after cardiopulmonary bypass: development and assessment of a new predictive nomogram

BACKGROUND: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a common and severe complication of cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB). This study aimed to establish a model to predict the probability of postoperative AKI in patients undergoing cardiac surgery with CPB. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective, multicenter study to analyze 1082 patients undergoing cardiac surgery under CPB. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model was used to optimize feature selection for the AKI model. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was applied to build a prediction model incorporating the feature selected in the previously mentioned model. Finally, we used multiple methods to evaluate the accuracy and clinical applicability of the model. RESULTS: Age, gender, hypertension, CPB duration, intraoperative 5% bicarbonate solution and red blood cell transfusion, urine volume were identified as important factors. Then, these risk factors were created into nomogram to predict the incidence of AKI after cardiac surgery under CPB. CONCLUSION: We developed a nomogram to predict the incidence of AKI after cardiac surgery. This model can be used as a reference tool for evaluating early medical intervention to prevent postoperative AKI. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12871-022-01925-w.