Cargando…

Nomogram for predicting overall survival time of patients with stage IV colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND: Prognosis varies among stage IV colorectal cancer (CRC). Our study aimed to build a robust prognostic nomogram for predicting overall survival (OS) of patients with stage IV CRC in order to provide evidence for individualized treatment. METHOD: We collected the information of 16,283 pati...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Lv, Min-Yi, Chen, Xi-Jie, Chen, Jun-Guo, Zhang, Bin, Lin, Yan-Yun, Huang, Tian-Ze, He, De-Gao, Wang, Kai, Chi, Zeng-Jie, Hu, Jian-Cong, He, Xiao-Sheng
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Oxford University Press 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9731212/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36518985
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/gastro/goac072
_version_ 1784845860174036992
author Lv, Min-Yi
Chen, Xi-Jie
Chen, Jun-Guo
Zhang, Bin
Lin, Yan-Yun
Huang, Tian-Ze
He, De-Gao
Wang, Kai
Chi, Zeng-Jie
Hu, Jian-Cong
He, Xiao-Sheng
author_facet Lv, Min-Yi
Chen, Xi-Jie
Chen, Jun-Guo
Zhang, Bin
Lin, Yan-Yun
Huang, Tian-Ze
He, De-Gao
Wang, Kai
Chi, Zeng-Jie
Hu, Jian-Cong
He, Xiao-Sheng
author_sort Lv, Min-Yi
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: Prognosis varies among stage IV colorectal cancer (CRC). Our study aimed to build a robust prognostic nomogram for predicting overall survival (OS) of patients with stage IV CRC in order to provide evidence for individualized treatment. METHOD: We collected the information of 16,283 patients with stage IV CRC in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and then randomized these patients in a ratio of 7:3 into a training cohort and an internal validation cohort. In addition, 501 patients in the Sixth Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University (Guangzhou, China) database were selected and used as an external validation cohort. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were used to screen out significant variables for nomogram establishment. The nomogram model was assessed using time-dependent receiver-operating characteristic curve (time-dependent ROC), concordance index (C-index), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis. Survival curves were plotted using the Kaplan–Meier method. RESULT: The C-index of the nomogram for OS in the training, internal validation, and external validation cohorts were 0.737, 0.727, and 0.655, respectively. ROC analysis and calibration curves pronounced robust discriminative ability of the model. Further, we divided the patients into a high-risk group and a low-risk group according to the nomogram. Corresponding Kaplan–Meier curves showed that the prediction of the nomogram was consistent with the actual practice. Additionally, model comparisons and decision curve analysis proved that the nomogram for predicting prognosis was significantly superior to the tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging system. CONCLUSIONS: We constructed a nomogram to predict OS of the stage IV CRC and externally validate its generalization, which was superior to the TNM staging system.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-9731212
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2022
publisher Oxford University Press
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-97312122022-12-13 Nomogram for predicting overall survival time of patients with stage IV colorectal cancer Lv, Min-Yi Chen, Xi-Jie Chen, Jun-Guo Zhang, Bin Lin, Yan-Yun Huang, Tian-Ze He, De-Gao Wang, Kai Chi, Zeng-Jie Hu, Jian-Cong He, Xiao-Sheng Gastroenterol Rep (Oxf) Original Article BACKGROUND: Prognosis varies among stage IV colorectal cancer (CRC). Our study aimed to build a robust prognostic nomogram for predicting overall survival (OS) of patients with stage IV CRC in order to provide evidence for individualized treatment. METHOD: We collected the information of 16,283 patients with stage IV CRC in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and then randomized these patients in a ratio of 7:3 into a training cohort and an internal validation cohort. In addition, 501 patients in the Sixth Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University (Guangzhou, China) database were selected and used as an external validation cohort. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were used to screen out significant variables for nomogram establishment. The nomogram model was assessed using time-dependent receiver-operating characteristic curve (time-dependent ROC), concordance index (C-index), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis. Survival curves were plotted using the Kaplan–Meier method. RESULT: The C-index of the nomogram for OS in the training, internal validation, and external validation cohorts were 0.737, 0.727, and 0.655, respectively. ROC analysis and calibration curves pronounced robust discriminative ability of the model. Further, we divided the patients into a high-risk group and a low-risk group according to the nomogram. Corresponding Kaplan–Meier curves showed that the prediction of the nomogram was consistent with the actual practice. Additionally, model comparisons and decision curve analysis proved that the nomogram for predicting prognosis was significantly superior to the tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging system. CONCLUSIONS: We constructed a nomogram to predict OS of the stage IV CRC and externally validate its generalization, which was superior to the TNM staging system. Oxford University Press 2022-12-08 /pmc/articles/PMC9731212/ /pubmed/36518985 http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/gastro/goac072 Text en © The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press and Sixth Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. For commercial re-use, please contact journals.permissions@oup.com
spellingShingle Original Article
Lv, Min-Yi
Chen, Xi-Jie
Chen, Jun-Guo
Zhang, Bin
Lin, Yan-Yun
Huang, Tian-Ze
He, De-Gao
Wang, Kai
Chi, Zeng-Jie
Hu, Jian-Cong
He, Xiao-Sheng
Nomogram for predicting overall survival time of patients with stage IV colorectal cancer
title Nomogram for predicting overall survival time of patients with stage IV colorectal cancer
title_full Nomogram for predicting overall survival time of patients with stage IV colorectal cancer
title_fullStr Nomogram for predicting overall survival time of patients with stage IV colorectal cancer
title_full_unstemmed Nomogram for predicting overall survival time of patients with stage IV colorectal cancer
title_short Nomogram for predicting overall survival time of patients with stage IV colorectal cancer
title_sort nomogram for predicting overall survival time of patients with stage iv colorectal cancer
topic Original Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9731212/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36518985
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/gastro/goac072
work_keys_str_mv AT lvminyi nomogramforpredictingoverallsurvivaltimeofpatientswithstageivcolorectalcancer
AT chenxijie nomogramforpredictingoverallsurvivaltimeofpatientswithstageivcolorectalcancer
AT chenjunguo nomogramforpredictingoverallsurvivaltimeofpatientswithstageivcolorectalcancer
AT zhangbin nomogramforpredictingoverallsurvivaltimeofpatientswithstageivcolorectalcancer
AT linyanyun nomogramforpredictingoverallsurvivaltimeofpatientswithstageivcolorectalcancer
AT huangtianze nomogramforpredictingoverallsurvivaltimeofpatientswithstageivcolorectalcancer
AT hedegao nomogramforpredictingoverallsurvivaltimeofpatientswithstageivcolorectalcancer
AT wangkai nomogramforpredictingoverallsurvivaltimeofpatientswithstageivcolorectalcancer
AT chizengjie nomogramforpredictingoverallsurvivaltimeofpatientswithstageivcolorectalcancer
AT hujiancong nomogramforpredictingoverallsurvivaltimeofpatientswithstageivcolorectalcancer
AT hexiaosheng nomogramforpredictingoverallsurvivaltimeofpatientswithstageivcolorectalcancer