Clinical Characteristics and Risk Prediction Score in Patients With Mild-to-Moderate Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Japan

Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has rapidly spread worldwide, causing widespread mortality. Many patients with COVID-19 have been treated in homes, hotels, and medium-sized hospitals where doctors were responsible for assessing the need for critical care hospitalization. This study aimed to establish a severity prediction score for critical care triage. Method: We analyzed the data of 368 patients with mild-to-moderate COVID-19 who had been admitted to Fussa Hospital, Japan, from April 2020 to February 2022. We defined a high-oxygen group as requiring ≥4 l/min of oxygen. Multivariable logistic regression was used to construct a risk prediction score, and the best model was selected using a stepwise selection method. Results: Multivariable analysis showed that older age (≥70 years), elevated creatine kinase (≥127 U/L), C-reactive protein (≥2.19 mg/dL), and ferritin (≥632.7 ng/mL) levels were independent risk factors associated with the high-oxygen group. Each risk factor was assigned a score ranging from 0 to 4, and we referred to the final overall score as the Fussa score. Patients were classified into two groups, namely, high-risk (total risk factors, ≥2) and low-risk (total risk score, <2) groups. The high-risk group had a significantly worse prognosis (low-risk group, undefined vs. high-risk group, undefined; P< 0.0001). Conclusions: The Fussa score might help to identify patients with COVID-19 who require critical care hospitalization.