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Long-term durability of immune responses to the BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 vaccines based on dosage, age and sex

The lipid nanoparticle (LNP)-formulated mRNA vaccines BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 are a widely adopted multi vaccination public health strategy to manage the COVID-19 pandemic. Clinical trial data has described the immunogenicity of the vaccine, albeit within a limited study time frame. Here, we use a wi...

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Autores principales: Korosec, Chapin S., Farhang-Sardroodi, Suzan, Dick, David W., Gholami, Sameneh, Ghaemi, Mohammad Sajjad, Moyles, Iain R., Craig, Morgan, Ooi, Hsu Kiang, Heffernan, Jane M.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9732004/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36481777
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-25134-0
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author Korosec, Chapin S.
Farhang-Sardroodi, Suzan
Dick, David W.
Gholami, Sameneh
Ghaemi, Mohammad Sajjad
Moyles, Iain R.
Craig, Morgan
Ooi, Hsu Kiang
Heffernan, Jane M.
author_facet Korosec, Chapin S.
Farhang-Sardroodi, Suzan
Dick, David W.
Gholami, Sameneh
Ghaemi, Mohammad Sajjad
Moyles, Iain R.
Craig, Morgan
Ooi, Hsu Kiang
Heffernan, Jane M.
author_sort Korosec, Chapin S.
collection PubMed
description The lipid nanoparticle (LNP)-formulated mRNA vaccines BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 are a widely adopted multi vaccination public health strategy to manage the COVID-19 pandemic. Clinical trial data has described the immunogenicity of the vaccine, albeit within a limited study time frame. Here, we use a within-host mathematical model for LNP-formulated mRNA vaccines, informed by available clinical trial data from 2020 to September 2021, to project a longer term understanding of immunity as a function of vaccine type, dosage amount, age, and sex. We estimate that two standard doses of either mRNA-1273 or BNT162b2, with dosage times separated by the company-mandated intervals, results in individuals losing more than 99% humoral immunity relative to peak immunity by 8 months following the second dose. We predict that within an 8 month period following dose two (corresponding to the original CDC time-frame for administration of a third dose), there exists a period of time longer than 1 month where an individual has lost more than 99% humoral immunity relative to peak immunity, regardless of which vaccine was administered. We further find that age has a strong influence in maintaining humoral immunity; by 8 months following dose two we predict that individuals aged 18–55 have a four-fold humoral advantage compared to aged 56–70 and 70+ individuals. We find that sex has little effect on the immune response and long-term IgG counts. Finally, we find that humoral immunity generated from two low doses of mRNA-1273 decays at a substantially slower rate relative to peak immunity gained compared to two standard doses of either mRNA-1273 or BNT162b2. Our predictions highlight the importance of the recommended third booster dose in order to maintain elevated levels of antibodies.
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spelling pubmed-97320042022-12-10 Long-term durability of immune responses to the BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 vaccines based on dosage, age and sex Korosec, Chapin S. Farhang-Sardroodi, Suzan Dick, David W. Gholami, Sameneh Ghaemi, Mohammad Sajjad Moyles, Iain R. Craig, Morgan Ooi, Hsu Kiang Heffernan, Jane M. Sci Rep Article The lipid nanoparticle (LNP)-formulated mRNA vaccines BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 are a widely adopted multi vaccination public health strategy to manage the COVID-19 pandemic. Clinical trial data has described the immunogenicity of the vaccine, albeit within a limited study time frame. Here, we use a within-host mathematical model for LNP-formulated mRNA vaccines, informed by available clinical trial data from 2020 to September 2021, to project a longer term understanding of immunity as a function of vaccine type, dosage amount, age, and sex. We estimate that two standard doses of either mRNA-1273 or BNT162b2, with dosage times separated by the company-mandated intervals, results in individuals losing more than 99% humoral immunity relative to peak immunity by 8 months following the second dose. We predict that within an 8 month period following dose two (corresponding to the original CDC time-frame for administration of a third dose), there exists a period of time longer than 1 month where an individual has lost more than 99% humoral immunity relative to peak immunity, regardless of which vaccine was administered. We further find that age has a strong influence in maintaining humoral immunity; by 8 months following dose two we predict that individuals aged 18–55 have a four-fold humoral advantage compared to aged 56–70 and 70+ individuals. We find that sex has little effect on the immune response and long-term IgG counts. Finally, we find that humoral immunity generated from two low doses of mRNA-1273 decays at a substantially slower rate relative to peak immunity gained compared to two standard doses of either mRNA-1273 or BNT162b2. Our predictions highlight the importance of the recommended third booster dose in order to maintain elevated levels of antibodies. Nature Publishing Group UK 2022-12-08 /pmc/articles/PMC9732004/ /pubmed/36481777 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-25134-0 Text en © The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Article
Korosec, Chapin S.
Farhang-Sardroodi, Suzan
Dick, David W.
Gholami, Sameneh
Ghaemi, Mohammad Sajjad
Moyles, Iain R.
Craig, Morgan
Ooi, Hsu Kiang
Heffernan, Jane M.
Long-term durability of immune responses to the BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 vaccines based on dosage, age and sex
title Long-term durability of immune responses to the BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 vaccines based on dosage, age and sex
title_full Long-term durability of immune responses to the BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 vaccines based on dosage, age and sex
title_fullStr Long-term durability of immune responses to the BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 vaccines based on dosage, age and sex
title_full_unstemmed Long-term durability of immune responses to the BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 vaccines based on dosage, age and sex
title_short Long-term durability of immune responses to the BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 vaccines based on dosage, age and sex
title_sort long-term durability of immune responses to the bnt162b2 and mrna-1273 vaccines based on dosage, age and sex
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9732004/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36481777
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-25134-0
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