Establishment of dynamic nomogram and risk score models for T2DM: a retrospective cohort study in Beijing

BACKGROUND: Health interventions can delay or prevent the occurrence and development of diabetes. Dynamic nomogram and risk score (RS) models were developed to predict the probability of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and identify high-risk groups. METHODS: Participants (n = 44,852) from the Beijing Physical Examination Center were followed up for 11 years (2006–2017); the mean follow-up time was 4.06 ± 2.09 years. Multivariable Cox regression was conducted in the training cohort to identify risk factors associated with T2DM and develop dynamic nomogram and RS models using weighted estimators corresponding to each covariate derived from the fitted Cox regression coefficients and variance estimates, and then undergone internal validation and sensitivity analysis. The concordance index (C-index) was used to assess the accuracy and reliability of the model. RESULTS: Of the 44,852 individuals at baseline, 2,912 were diagnosed with T2DM during the follow-up period, and the incidence density rate per 1,000 person-years was 16.00. Multivariate analysis indicated that male sex (P < 0.001), older age (P < 0.001), high body mass index (BMI, P < 0.05), high fasting plasma glucose (FPG, P < 0.001), hypertension (P = 0.015), dyslipidaemia (P < 0.001), and low serum creatinine (sCr, P < 0.05) at presentation were risk factors for T2DM. The dynamic nomogram achieved a high C-index of 0.909 in the training set and 0.905 in the validation set. A tenfold cross-validation estimated the area under the curve of the nomogram at 0.909 (95% confidence interval 0.897–0.920). Moreover, the dynamic nomogram and RS model exhibited acceptable discrimination and clinical usefulness in subgroup and sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: The T2DM dynamic nomogram and RS models offer clinicians and others who conduct physical examinations, respectively, simple-to-use tools to assess the risk of developing T2DM in the urban Chinese current or retired employees. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-14782-6.