Choosing the right tool: Leveraging of plant genetic resources in wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) benefits from selection of a suitable genomic prediction model

KEY MESSAGE: Genomic prediction of genebank accessions benefits from the consideration of additive-by-additive epistasis and subpopulation-specific marker effects. ABSTRACT: Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and other species of the Triticum genus are well represented in genebank collections worldwide. The substantial genetic diversity harbored by more than 850,000 accessions can be explored for their potential use in modern plant breeding. Characterization of these large number of accessions is constrained by the required resources, and this fact limits their use so far. This limitation might be overcome by engaging genomic prediction. The present study compared ten different genomic prediction approaches to the prediction of four traits, namely flowering time, plant height, thousand grain weight, and yellow rust resistance, in a diverse set of 7745 accession samples from Germany’s Federal ex situ genebank at the Leibniz Institute of Plant Genetics and Crop Plant Research in Gatersleben. Approaches were evaluated based on prediction ability and robustness to the confounding influence of strong population structure. The authors propose the wide application of extended genomic best linear unbiased prediction due to the observed benefit of incorporating additive-by-additive epistasis. General and subpopulation-specific additive ridge regression best linear unbiased prediction, which accounts for subpopulation-specific marker-effects, was shown to be a good option if contrasting clusters are encountered in the analyzed collection. The presented findings reaffirm that the trait’s genetic architecture as well as the composition and relatedness of the training set and test set are major driving factors for the accuracy of genomic prediction. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00122-022-04227-4.