Water consumption prediction and influencing factor analysis based on PCA-BP neural network in karst regions: a case study of Guizhou Province

Water consumption prediction is an integral part of water resource planning and management. Constructing a highly precise water consumption prediction model is of great significance for promoting regional water resource planning and high-quality development of the socio-economy. This paper focuses on the case of the typical karst region in Guizhou Province in China. Based on data on water consumption and its influencing factors spanning 2000–2020, the principal component analysis method was applied to reduce the dimensionality of 16 influencing factors of water consumption in Guizhou; the principal components extracted were used as input samples of the BP neural network and a PCA-BP neural network water consumption prediction model was conducted to predict water consumption of Guizhou Province in the next 10 years. The results show that the mean absolute error and mean relative error of prediction based on the constructed PCA-BP neural network were 2.8% and 2.9%, respectively, with superior performance in terms of prediction error and trends compared with other models. This paper discusses the main influencing factors of water consumption and analyzes their influence on the water consumption forecasting model so that the parameters of the water consumption forecasting model can be selected more efficiently and provide a reference for regional water consumption analysis and water resource planning and management. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11356-022-24604-2.