One crisis among many: Russia’s war in Ukraine and its implications for the MENA region

Beyond the most immediate and devastating effects being felt by the local populace, the war in Ukraine is also having severe repercussions in other world regions, particularly the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), where we find significant effects on domestic and regional politics. This contribution discusses conflict potential along these two dimensions and how they are interrelated, including with global politics. First, the effects of the war were quickly felt at the domestic level via rising prices and shortages of (subsidized) staples. A deteriorating economic situation is heating existing societal conflicts that had led to waves of mass uprisings in the MENA over the last decade, which are very likely to re-appear in the near future. We discuss recent developments in light of existing knowledge about the nexus between socioeconomic grievances and (non-)violent mobilization. Second, we reflect on changes to regional and global politics and their impact on conflicts in the region. The EU’s sudden need for alternative oil and gas suppliers has improved the strategic position of Gulf countries, also vis-à-vis Iran in the rivalry over regional hegemony. This shift empowers such authoritarian regimes that support other autocracies as well as conflict parties in civil wars in the region. Instead of allying with either the West or Russia, the ruling elites’ relationship with global powers remains opportunistic. Cooperation with Russia and China might very well aggravate political grievances rather than remedy structural socioeconomic shortcomings—both of which will continue to fuel preexisting lines of conflict in the region.