The evolution of the ‘QUAD’: driving forces, impacts, and prospects

The evolution of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, commonly known as “the Quad”, from a senior-level security dialogue involving the U.S., Japan, India, and Australia, to leader-level summit since 2017, speaks volumes about the rapidly changing strategic landscape in the Indo-Pacific. From the very beginning, there have been three driving forces behind the rebirth, development, and improvement of the Quad: balancing China’s power and influence; promoting practical cooperation; and shaping regional order. The evolution of the Quad, especially its overt anti-China rhetoric and activities, has negatively affected political, economic, and security order in the region. Looking ahead, although the Quad is not envisioned to become an Asian NATO, it is poised to strengthen practical cooperation, policy coordination, and strategic consultations in efforts to balance and compete with China. That said, its future direction hinges on how China–U.S. relations evolve and is thus shrouded in uncertainty.