How Has Climate Change Driven the Evolution of Rice Distribution in China?

Estimating the impact of climate change risks on rice distribution is one of the most important elements of climate risk management. This paper is based on the GEE (Google Earth Engine) platform and multi-source remote sensing data; the authors quantitatively extracted rice production distribution data in China from 1990 to 2019, analysed the evolution pattern of rice distribution and clusters and explored the driving effects between climatic and environmental conditions on the evolution of rice production distribution using the non-parametric quantile regression model. The results show that: The spatial variation of rice distribution is significant, mainly concentrated in the northeast, south and southwest regions of China; the distribution of rice in the northeast is expanding, while the distribution of rice in the south is extending northward, showing a spatial evolution trend of “north rising and south retreating”. The positive effect of precipitation on the spatial distribution of rice has a significant threshold. This shows that when precipitation is greater than 800 mm, there is a significant positive effect on the spatial distribution of rice production, and this effect will increase with precipitation increases. Climate change may lead to a continuous northward shift in the extent of rice production, especially extending to the northwest of China. This paper’s results will help implement more spatially targeted climate change adaptation measures for rice to cope with the changes in food production distribution caused by climate change.