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Increased Invasion Risk of Tagetes minuta L. in China under Climate Change: A Study of the Potential Geographical Distributions

Tagetes minuta L., a member of the Tageftes genus belonging to the Asteraceae family, is a well-documented exotic plant native to South America that has become established in China. In this study, 784 occurrence records and 12 environmental variables were used to predict the potential geographical d...

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Autores principales: Qi, Yuhan, Xian, Xiaoqing, Zhao, Haoxiang, Wang, Rui, Huang, Hongkun, Zhang, Yanping, Yang, Ming, Liu, Wanxue
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9737557/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36501288
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/plants11233248
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author Qi, Yuhan
Xian, Xiaoqing
Zhao, Haoxiang
Wang, Rui
Huang, Hongkun
Zhang, Yanping
Yang, Ming
Liu, Wanxue
author_facet Qi, Yuhan
Xian, Xiaoqing
Zhao, Haoxiang
Wang, Rui
Huang, Hongkun
Zhang, Yanping
Yang, Ming
Liu, Wanxue
author_sort Qi, Yuhan
collection PubMed
description Tagetes minuta L., a member of the Tageftes genus belonging to the Asteraceae family, is a well-documented exotic plant native to South America that has become established in China. In this study, 784 occurrence records and 12 environmental variables were used to predict the potential geographical distributions (PGDs) of T. minuta under current and future climatic changes using an optimized MaxEnt model. The results showed that (1) three out of the twelve variables contributed the most to the model performance: isothermality (bio3), precipitation in the driest quarter (bio17), and precipitation in the warmest quarter (bio18); (2) the PGDs of T. minuta under the current climate covered 62.06 × 10(4) km(2), mainly in North, South, and Southwest China; and (3) climate changes will facilitate the expansion of the PGDs of T. minuta under three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP 1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) in both the 2030s and 2050s. The centroid of suitable habitats under SSP2-4.5 moved the longest distance. T. minuta has the capacity to expand in China, especially in Yunnan, where there exist no occurrence records. Customs, ports, and adjacent regions should strengthen the quarantine of imported goods and mobile personnel for T. minuta, and introduced seedlings should be isolated to minimize their introduction risk.
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spelling pubmed-97375572022-12-11 Increased Invasion Risk of Tagetes minuta L. in China under Climate Change: A Study of the Potential Geographical Distributions Qi, Yuhan Xian, Xiaoqing Zhao, Haoxiang Wang, Rui Huang, Hongkun Zhang, Yanping Yang, Ming Liu, Wanxue Plants (Basel) Article Tagetes minuta L., a member of the Tageftes genus belonging to the Asteraceae family, is a well-documented exotic plant native to South America that has become established in China. In this study, 784 occurrence records and 12 environmental variables were used to predict the potential geographical distributions (PGDs) of T. minuta under current and future climatic changes using an optimized MaxEnt model. The results showed that (1) three out of the twelve variables contributed the most to the model performance: isothermality (bio3), precipitation in the driest quarter (bio17), and precipitation in the warmest quarter (bio18); (2) the PGDs of T. minuta under the current climate covered 62.06 × 10(4) km(2), mainly in North, South, and Southwest China; and (3) climate changes will facilitate the expansion of the PGDs of T. minuta under three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP 1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) in both the 2030s and 2050s. The centroid of suitable habitats under SSP2-4.5 moved the longest distance. T. minuta has the capacity to expand in China, especially in Yunnan, where there exist no occurrence records. Customs, ports, and adjacent regions should strengthen the quarantine of imported goods and mobile personnel for T. minuta, and introduced seedlings should be isolated to minimize their introduction risk. MDPI 2022-11-26 /pmc/articles/PMC9737557/ /pubmed/36501288 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/plants11233248 Text en © 2022 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Qi, Yuhan
Xian, Xiaoqing
Zhao, Haoxiang
Wang, Rui
Huang, Hongkun
Zhang, Yanping
Yang, Ming
Liu, Wanxue
Increased Invasion Risk of Tagetes minuta L. in China under Climate Change: A Study of the Potential Geographical Distributions
title Increased Invasion Risk of Tagetes minuta L. in China under Climate Change: A Study of the Potential Geographical Distributions
title_full Increased Invasion Risk of Tagetes minuta L. in China under Climate Change: A Study of the Potential Geographical Distributions
title_fullStr Increased Invasion Risk of Tagetes minuta L. in China under Climate Change: A Study of the Potential Geographical Distributions
title_full_unstemmed Increased Invasion Risk of Tagetes minuta L. in China under Climate Change: A Study of the Potential Geographical Distributions
title_short Increased Invasion Risk of Tagetes minuta L. in China under Climate Change: A Study of the Potential Geographical Distributions
title_sort increased invasion risk of tagetes minuta l. in china under climate change: a study of the potential geographical distributions
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9737557/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36501288
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/plants11233248
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