The Spatial-Temporal Transition and Influencing Factors of Green and Low-Carbon Utilization Efficiency of Urban Land in China under the Goal of Carbon Neutralization

Urban-land development and utilization is one of the main sources of carbon emissions. Improving the green and low-carbon utilization efficiency of urban land (GLUEUL) under the goal of carbon neutrality is crucial to the low-carbon transition and green development of China’s economy. Combining the concept of green and low-carbon development in urban land use, carbon emissions and industrial-pollution emissions are incorporated into the unexpected outputs of the GLUEUL evaluation system. The super-efficient slacks-based measure (SBM) model, Exploratory Spatial-Temporal Data Analysis (ESTDA) method and Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) model were used to analyze the spatial-temporal transition and the influencing factors of GLUEUL in 282 cities in China from 2005 to 2020. The result shows that: (1) From 2005 to 2020, the green and low-carbon land-utilization efficiency of Chinese cities shows an increasing temporal-evolution trend, but the gap between cities is gradually widening. (2) From the spatial-temporal dynamic characteristics of Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA), regions with the highest GLUEUL have strong dynamics and instability, while cities at the lowest level have a relatively stable spatial structure. On the whole, the local-spatial-transfer direction of GLUEUL of each city is stable, with certain path-dependent characteristics. (3) There are differences in the degree of influence and direction of action of different factors on GLUEUL. The economic development level, industrial-structure upgrading, financial support, wealth level, and green-technology-innovation ability have positive effects on overall GLUEUL, with industrial-structure upgrading promoting GLUEUL the most, while urban population size, foreign-investment scale, and financial-development level play a negative role. This study can provide some empirical and theoretical references for the improvement of GLUEUL.