Recent global decline in rainfall interception loss due to altered rainfall regimes

Evaporative loss of interception (E(i)) is the first process occurring during rainfall, yet its role in large-scale surface water balance has been largely underexplored. Here we show that E(i) can be inferred from flux tower evapotranspiration measurements using physics-informed hybrid machine learning models built under wet versus dry conditions. Forced by satellite and reanalysis data, this framework provides an observationally constrained estimate of E(i), which is on average 84.1 ± 1.8 mm per year and accounts for 8.6 ± 0.2% of total rainfall globally during 2000–2020. Rainfall frequency regulates long-term average E(i) changes, and rainfall intensity, rather than vegetation attributes, determines the fraction of E(i) in gross precipitation (E(i)/P). Rain events have become less frequent and more intense since 2000, driving a global decline in E(i) (and E(i)/P) by 4.9% (6.7%). This suggests that ongoing rainfall changes favor a partitioning towards more soil moisture and runoff, benefiting ecosystem functions but simultaneously increasing flood risks.