Social cognitive predictors of vaccination status, uptake and mitigation behaviors in the Canadian COVID-19 Experiences survey

Emerging infectious diseases like COVID-19 will remain a concern for the foreseeable future, and determinants of vaccination and other mitigation behaviors are therefore critical to understand. Using data from the first two waves of the Canadian COVID-19 Experiences Survey (CCES; N = 1,958; 66.56 % female), we examined social cognitive predictors of vaccination status, transition to acceptance and mitigation behaviors in a population-representative sample. Findings indicated that all social cognitive variables were strong predictors of mitigation behavior performance at each wave, particularly among unvaccinated individuals. Among those who were vaccine hesitant at baseline, most social cognitive variables predicted transition to fully vaccinated status at follow-up. After controlling for demographic factors and geographic region, greater odds of transitioning from unvaccinated at CCES Wave 1 to fully vaccinated at CCES Wave 2 was predicted most strongly by a perception that one’s valued peers were taking up the vaccine (e.g., dynamic norms (OR = 2.13 (CI: 1.54,2.93)), perceived effectiveness of the vaccine (OR = 3.71 (CI: 2.43,5.66)), favorable attitudes toward the vaccine (OR = 2.80 (CI: 1.99,3.95)), greater perceived severity of COVID-19 (OR = 2.02 (CI: 1.42,2.86)), and stronger behavioral intention to become vaccinated (OR = 2.99 (CI: 2.16,4.14)). As a group, social cognitive variables improved prediction of COVID-19 mitigation behaviors (masking, distancing, hand hygiene) by a factor of 5 compared to demographic factors, and improved prediction of vaccination status by a factor of nearly 20. Social cognitive processes appear to be important leverage points for health communications to encourage COVID-19 vaccination and other mitigation behaviors, particularly among initially hesitant members of the general population.