Change in patent foramen ovale height is associated with cryptogenic stroke and the construction of a morphology-based scoring system

INTRODUCTION: Current guidelines recommended patent foramen ovale (PFO) occlusion as the preferred treatment for PFO-related cryptogenic stroke (CS); however, finding the causative foramen ovale remains challenging. This study aimed to identify predictors and establish a scoring system by assessing PFO morphology and stroke-related factors. METHODS: Based on a prospective multicenter registered clinical trial, we compared data mainly derived from transesophageal echocardiography (TEE) and clinical history in patients with PFO-related CS and those without CS (non-CS) with incidental PFO. Subsequently, we explored independent predictors using logistic analysis, established a scoring system based on the results, and finally evaluated the scoring system using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis and internal validation. RESULTS: 75 patients with PFO-related CS and 147 non-CS patients were enrolled. Multivariate logistic analysis showed that the change in PFO height, large PFO, atrial septal aneurysm (ASA), and sustained right-to-left shunt (RLS) had independent relationships with CS. Based on the odds ratio value of each independent factor, a scoring system was built: change in PFO height ≥ 1.85 mm (3 points), large PFO (2 points), ASA (5 points), sustained RLS (2 points). 0–2 points correspond to low-risk PFO, 3–5 points medium-risk PFO, and 7–12 points high-risk PFO. ROC analysis showed an area under the curve of 0.80 to predict CS. The proportion of patients with CS is increasing based on these points. CONCLUSIONS: Our study screened out the change in PFO height as an independent predictor of CS. A simple and convenient scoring system can provide constructive guidance for identifying whether the PFO is causal and consequently selecting patients more likely to benefit from closure.