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Derivation and Validation of a Prognostic Model for Mortality in Chinese Patients with Acute Pulmonary Embolism
INTRODUCTION: We aim to explore the risk factors for in-hospital mortality and to derive a prognostic model for patients with APE in China. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Inpatients with APE were enrolled from West China Hospital between January 2016 and December 2019. Logistic regression analyses were used...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
SAGE Publications
2022
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9742928/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36484273 http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/10760296221129597 |
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author | Zhang, Jiarui Ali, Adila Liu, Yu Peng, Lige Pu, Jiaqi Yi, Qun Zhou, Haixia |
author_facet | Zhang, Jiarui Ali, Adila Liu, Yu Peng, Lige Pu, Jiaqi Yi, Qun Zhou, Haixia |
author_sort | Zhang, Jiarui |
collection | PubMed |
description | INTRODUCTION: We aim to explore the risk factors for in-hospital mortality and to derive a prognostic model for patients with APE in China. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Inpatients with APE were enrolled from West China Hospital between January 2016 and December 2019. Logistic regression analyses were used to explore risk factors for in-hospital mortality and develop a prognostic model. RESULTS: A total of 813 subjects with APE were included in this study, of whom 542 were in the training set and 271 were in the test set. Multivariable regression analyses indicated that age, male, heart rate, systolic blood pressure, elevated NT-proBNP or troponin T, malignancy, chronic renal insufficiency, and respiratory failure were independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality. For the training set, the area under the curve (AUC) of the ROC curve was 0.899, with a sensitivity and specificity of 89.7% and 77.7%, respectively. The model had higher prediction accuracy than the PESI and sPESI. CONCLUSIONS: The prediction model has proven excellent discrimination and calibration, which may be a useful tool to help physicians make decisions regarding the best treatment strategy. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9742928 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | SAGE Publications |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-97429282022-12-13 Derivation and Validation of a Prognostic Model for Mortality in Chinese Patients with Acute Pulmonary Embolism Zhang, Jiarui Ali, Adila Liu, Yu Peng, Lige Pu, Jiaqi Yi, Qun Zhou, Haixia Clin Appl Thromb Hemost Original Manuscript INTRODUCTION: We aim to explore the risk factors for in-hospital mortality and to derive a prognostic model for patients with APE in China. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Inpatients with APE were enrolled from West China Hospital between January 2016 and December 2019. Logistic regression analyses were used to explore risk factors for in-hospital mortality and develop a prognostic model. RESULTS: A total of 813 subjects with APE were included in this study, of whom 542 were in the training set and 271 were in the test set. Multivariable regression analyses indicated that age, male, heart rate, systolic blood pressure, elevated NT-proBNP or troponin T, malignancy, chronic renal insufficiency, and respiratory failure were independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality. For the training set, the area under the curve (AUC) of the ROC curve was 0.899, with a sensitivity and specificity of 89.7% and 77.7%, respectively. The model had higher prediction accuracy than the PESI and sPESI. CONCLUSIONS: The prediction model has proven excellent discrimination and calibration, which may be a useful tool to help physicians make decisions regarding the best treatment strategy. SAGE Publications 2022-12-09 /pmc/articles/PMC9742928/ /pubmed/36484273 http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/10760296221129597 Text en © The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) which permits non-commercial use, reproduction and distribution of the work without further permission provided the original work is attributed as specified on the SAGE and Open Access page (https://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/open-access-at-sage). |
spellingShingle | Original Manuscript Zhang, Jiarui Ali, Adila Liu, Yu Peng, Lige Pu, Jiaqi Yi, Qun Zhou, Haixia Derivation and Validation of a Prognostic Model for Mortality in Chinese Patients with Acute Pulmonary Embolism |
title | Derivation and Validation of a Prognostic Model for Mortality in
Chinese Patients with Acute Pulmonary Embolism |
title_full | Derivation and Validation of a Prognostic Model for Mortality in
Chinese Patients with Acute Pulmonary Embolism |
title_fullStr | Derivation and Validation of a Prognostic Model for Mortality in
Chinese Patients with Acute Pulmonary Embolism |
title_full_unstemmed | Derivation and Validation of a Prognostic Model for Mortality in
Chinese Patients with Acute Pulmonary Embolism |
title_short | Derivation and Validation of a Prognostic Model for Mortality in
Chinese Patients with Acute Pulmonary Embolism |
title_sort | derivation and validation of a prognostic model for mortality in
chinese patients with acute pulmonary embolism |
topic | Original Manuscript |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9742928/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36484273 http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/10760296221129597 |
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